160 Private Road 481 · Carl's Corner, TX 76645

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

0.50 ac lot $89/sqft · 39% below area Est $197k · 39% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful lake views right from your covered balcony at this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on approximately .5 acres. With 1,344 square feet of living space, the layout offers solid potential for a weekend getaway, full-time cabin living, or an investment property. The .5 acre lot provides room to spread out and enjoy the natural setting, while the elevated balcony gives you a front-row seat to relaxing water views. Whether you’re looking to create a cozy rental or a personal retreat, this property offers the location to make it happen. With some vision and renovation, this lake-view property could truly shine making it an ideal project for investors or buyers ready to roll up their sleeves and add value.

Key facts

• Lake views
• Covered balcony
• Elevated balcony

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• COVERED BALCONY
• ELEVATED BALCONY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($505/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #370 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hillsboro Int (math 43% / reading 35%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 429 students, 81% FRL); Hillsboro J H (math 47% / reading 40%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 272 students, 72% FRL); Hillsboro H S (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 604 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,723
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -39.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
360 Private Rd 477	0.37mi	2/1.5	1,290 (-4%)	18mo	$310,000	$240	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-16,624
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,514
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76645

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,365/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $76	+0% $42	+5% $8	+10% $-26
Rent	-10% $-62	-5% $-10	+0% $42	+5% $94	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $73	base $42	+0.5pp $11	+1.0pp $-21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $119,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $119,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    price $119,900 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful lake views right from your covered balcony at this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on approximately .5 acres. With 1,344 square feet of living space, the layout offers solid potential for a weekend getaway, full-time cabin living, or an investment property. The .5 acre lot provides room to spread out and enjoy the natural setting, while the elevated balcony gives you a front-row seat to relaxing water views. Whether you’re looking to create a cozy rental or a personal retreat, this property offers the location to make it happen. With some vision and renovation, this lake-view property could truly shine making it an ideal project for investors or buyers ready to roll up their sleeves and add value.

19. 2026-02-22
    listed $139,900 Active 727-char remark

    Show marketing remark (727 chars)

    Enjoy peaceful lake views right from your covered balcony at this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on approximately .5 acres. With 1,344 square feet of living space, the layout offers solid potential for a weekend getaway, full-time cabin living, or an investment property. The .5 acre lot provides room to spread out and enjoy the natural setting, while the elevated balcony gives you a front-row seat to relaxing water views. Whether you’re looking to create a cozy rental or a personal retreat, this property offers the location to make it happen. With some vision and renovation, this lake-view property could truly shine making it an ideal project for investors or buyers ready to roll up their sleeves and add value.

20. 2023-03-11
    historical
21. 2023-02-03
    price $189,900
22. 2022-12-16
    listed $199,900 Active
23. 2000-01-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 4 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,365
• − Insurance: −$2,102
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,268
• − Management: −$1,268
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$327
• After-tax cash flow: $832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823280
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,483
• Composite: 35.12/100
• National rank: #5016
• State rank: #370 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carl's Corner

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,321

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.83%
• Current HPI: 248.3182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2023-03-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-02-03 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2022-12-16 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2000-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,365 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.