169 Dartmouth Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$87,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 4,251 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great value for a site built home here in our Sweetwater community. Sweetwater has much to offer with low HOA fees that include the golf dues. Residents only pay a green fee of $2.00. We have an 18 hole course, beautiful clubhouse with Pub, heated community pool, tennis courts, all situated on Lake Henry with a marina and fishing pier. .. .Visit Sweetwater before you buy your winter home.

Key facts

• 4,251 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs OK; breed restrictions; number limit; max pet weight 20 lbs)
• Financial info: Total monthly HOA: $387; Total annual fees reported: $4,644; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $387); HOA fees required; approval required; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, fitness center, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, golf course access, recreation facilities, maintenance, private road, security, wheelchair access; Association fee includes cable TV, internet, grounds maintenance, management, sewer, trash, water, pool, and recreational facilities; Community features include clubhouse, deed restrictions, dog park, fitness center, golf, reclaimed irrigation, tennis courts, street lights; senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community; Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available and connected; Underground utilities; Water and sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces northwest; Homestead-exempt
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof / roof over; Block foundation with crawl space; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Near golf course; Paved, private lot; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.78%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $19,948
• Equity at exit: $13,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $52,562
• Equity at exit: $7,565

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $778/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $87,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $637	-5% $612	+0% $588	+5% $563	+10% $538
Rent	-10% $434	-5% $511	+0% $588	+5% $664	+10% $741
Rate	-1.0pp $632	-0.5pp $610	base $588	+0.5pp $565	+1.0pp $542

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
161 Greenview Dr #161 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	24d	1	0.53mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	15d	1	1.04mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	24d	1	1.32mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	4d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-22
   listed $87,500 Active
3. 2013-04-23
   soldstatus $75,000
4. 2013-04-15
   soldstatus $75,000 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   This is a great value for a site built home here in our Sweetwater community. Sweetwater has much to offer with low HOA fees that include the golf dues. Residents only pay a green fee of $2.00. We have an 18 hole course, beautiful clubhouse with Pub, heated community pool, tennis courts, all situated on Lake Henry with a marina and fishing pier. .. .Visit Sweetwater before you buy your winter home.

5. 2012-10-19
   listed $82,500 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   This is a great value for a site built home here in our Sweetwater community. Sweetwater has much to offer with low HOA fees that include the golf dues. Residents only pay a green fee of $2.00. We have an 18 hole course, beautiful clubhouse with Pub, heated community pool, tennis courts, all situated on Lake Henry with a marina and fishing pier. .. .Visit Sweetwater before you buy your winter home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $778 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$778
• − Insurance: −$438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable income: $6,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,506
• After-tax cash flow: $5,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+6.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Listed $87,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-15 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-19 Listed $82,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $778 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.