538 Arrowwood Blvd · Freeport, FL 32439

$394,850

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,444 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,966 sqft lot 2-car garage $162/sqft · at area comps Est $403k · at est. $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Milton II, brand new floor plan! From your covered front porch step into your foyer with a trey ceiling and shadow box trim. Get ready to entertain friends & family in the open layout in the social hub of the home. Gather around the quartz countertop island in the kitchen to share appetizers & stories about your day. Step outside the dining room to the covered back porch and put some food on the grill. Utilize the cozy nook off of the kitchen for a home office or place to study. Your secluded primary suite comes complete with a trey ceiling, dual vanity in the bathroom & a walk-in closet that connects conveniently to your laundry room.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Dual vanity
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP ISLAND
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• SECLUDED PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-456 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $299k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1403 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $298,765 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,697
• List price: $394,850
• Delta: -1.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
531 Arrowwood Blvd	0.03mi	5/4.0	2,444 (0%)	5mo	$411,278	$168	94
542 Staggerbush Blvd	0.14mi	5/4.0	2,514 (+3%)	1mo	$419,850	$167	88
513 Arrowwood Blvd	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,487 (+2%)	5mo	$412,355	$166	81
41 Sweetclover St	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,532 (+4%)	3mo	$399,850	$158	75
290 Sagebrush Dr	0.38mi	5/4.0	2,527 (+3%)	3mo	$433,303	$171	74
80 Huckleberry St	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,532 (+4%)	6mo	$417,175	$165	73
454 Arrowwood Blvd	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,213 (-10%)	4mo	$393,000	$178	66
532 Staggerbush St	0.15mi	5/4.0	2,794 (+14%)	4mo	$453,901	$162	66
365 Bluebeech St	0.24mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,213 (-10%)	5mo	$386,718	$175	60
108 Sagebrush Dr	0.37mi	5/3.0	2,146 (-12%)	3mo	$398,586	$186	56
301 Sagebrush Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,212 (-10%)	2mo	$412,855	$187	55
410 Arrowwood Blvd	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,117 (-13%)	7mo	$357,175	$169	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-97,691
• Equity at exit: $58,873

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-140,914
• Equity at exit: $34,139

Cash invested: $110,558 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $416,850 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 78 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1403
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$494 /mo · $5,923/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,565

Max offer price $328,797

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-320	+0% $-456	+5% $-593	+10% $-729
Rent	-10% $-693	-5% $-574	+0% $-456	+5% $-338	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-258	-0.5pp $-356	base $-456	+0.5pp $-559	+1.0pp $-663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,712
• Closing costs: $11,846
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Staggerbush St Freeport, FL	4.0	2.5	2048	$2,645	$1.29	109d	1	0.30mi
145 Arrowwood Blvd Freeport, FL	4.0	3.0	1960	$2,700	$1.38	6d	1	0.40mi
36 Gray Owl Dr E Freeport, FL	4.0	2.0	2108	$2,800	$1.33	117d	1	1.10mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (includes recreational facility and master association)Subdivision: OWL'S HEADShort-term rentals not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageDriveway with 2 spacesGarage door opener
• Utilities: Electric servicePublic waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Craftsman style2 storiesFacing information not providedResid Single Family zoning
• Construction: Siding (cement fiberboard/hardboard)Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioLawn pumpSprinkler systemPaved road accessSidewalksCovenants (HOA restrictions)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floorKitchen islandDishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (master on first floor with tray ceiling and walk-in closet)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathroomsMaster bathroom with double vanity and separate shower; carpeted
• Heating & cooling: Central heatCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Tray ceilingsKitchen islandPantryPull-down attic stairsWasher/dryer hookupDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookupElectric water heater

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $394,850 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $394,850 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $394,850 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $394,850 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $394,850 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $394,850 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $394,850 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $394,850 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $394,850 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $394,850 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $394,850 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $394,850 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $394,850 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-07-08
    days on market $394,850 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-07-07
    days on market $394,850 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-07-06
    days on market $394,850 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-07-05
    days on market $394,850 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-07-04
    days on market $394,850 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-07-03
    days on market $394,850 Active 24 DOM
20. 2026-07-02
    days on market $394,850 Active 23 DOM
21. 2026-07-01
    days on market $394,850 Active 22 DOM
22. 2026-06-30
    days on market $394,850 Active 21 DOM
23. 2026-06-29
    days on market $394,850 Active 20 DOM
24. 2026-06-28
    days on market $394,850 Active 19 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $394,850 Active 18 DOM
26. 2026-06-27
    days on market $394,850 Active 17 DOM
27. 2026-06-25
    days on market $394,850 Active 15 DOM
28. 2026-06-23
    days on market $394,850 Active 13 DOM
29. 2026-06-21
    days on market $394,850 Active 12 DOM
30. 2026-06-18
    days on market $394,850 Active 9 DOM
31. 2026-06-17
    days on market $394,850 Active 8 DOM
32. 2026-06-16
    days on market $394,850 Active 7 DOM
33. 2026-06-15
    days on market $394,850 Active 6 DOM
34. 2026-06-14
    days on market $394,850 Active 4 DOM
35. 2026-06-13
    days on market $394,850 Active 3 DOM
36. 2026-06-10
    remarks 687-char remark
37. 2026-06-10
    listed $394,850 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,118
• − Property taxes: −$5,923
• − Insurance: −$1,974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,868
• − Management: −$2,868
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$11,487
• Taxable loss: −$12,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,986
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Freeport Elementary School C FL #949/2,144 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Freeport Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Freeport Senior High School C- FL #138/667 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeport, FL
• County: Walton County · 80,014 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (includes recreational facility and master association)Subdivision: OWL'S HEADShort-term rentals not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageDriveway with 2 spacesGarage door opener
• Utilities: Electric servicePublic waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Craftsman style2 storiesFacing information not providedResid Single Family zoning
• Construction: Siding (cement fiberboard/hardboard)Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patioLawn pumpSprinkler systemPaved road accessSidewalksCovenants (HOA restrictions)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floorKitchen islandDishwasherDisposalMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (master on first floor with tray ceiling and walk-in closet)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathroomsMaster bathroom with double vanity and separate shower; carpeted
• Heating & cooling: Central heatCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Tray ceilingsKitchen islandPantryPull-down attic stairsWasher/dryer hookupDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookupElectric water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $394,850 ECAR