3554 Cecelia Ave · Toledo, OH
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $713 – $1,323
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 100°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +26.6/30.0
- DSCR +9.1/10.0
- 1% rule +7.0/10.0
- ARV discount +4.0/15.0
- Rent growth +3.5/5.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.6/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$79,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This is a charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home with a full basement. All appliances stay. Furnace & AC appproximately 5 yrs. old, HW tank is newer and electric updated. 2 car garage. Located close to freeway access, boating, golfing, shopping & parks. Well maintained property priced to move.
Key facts
- Large windows
- Spacious kitchen
- Detached garage
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: Detached garage; Concrete driveway/parking; Total parking for 4 vehicles; Garage capacity approximately 1.5 cars
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available
- Home design: Single-family residence; Detached property with two levels (two stories)
- Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation; Basement: block
- Exterior features: Shingle roof
Interior
- Bedrooms: Upper-level bedrooms (two rooms ~11x14 and 10x13; a third bedroom ~11x11 on the upper level)
- Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
- Interior features: 5 total rooms; Other interior features
- Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($958 rent vs $80k).
- Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
- Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Leverette Elementary School (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,517 of 1,584 statewide, top 96%, 429 students, 0% FRL); Woodward High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #726 of 781 statewide, top 94%, 672 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($29k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.20% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.50%
- Cash-on-cash
- 11.46%
- DSCR
- 1.51
- GRM
- 6.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $74,088
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3233 Jeannette Ave | 0.42mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,173 (-0%) | 3mo | $86,000 | $73 | 73 |
| 3405 Maher St | 0.21mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,293 (+10%) | 2mo | $105,000 | $81 | 65 |
| 3427 Beaumont Dr | 0.30mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,080 (-8%) | 3mo | $22,000 | $20 | 65 |
| 1548 Booth Ave | 0.50mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,125 (-4%) | 3mo | $95,000 | $84 | 62 |
| 910 Woodward Ave | 0.41mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,104 (-6%) | 4mo | $34,000 | $31 | 58 |
| 1101 Ketcham Ave | 0.44mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,068 (-9%) | 3mo | $25,850 | $24 | 56 |
| 1102 Woodward Ave | 0.41mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,041 (-12%) | 4mo | $62,000 | $60 | 54 |
| 1821 Ridgewood Ave | 0.64mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,090 (-7%) | 2mo | $48,000 | $44 | 51 |
| 1541 Booth Ave | 0.48mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,057 (-10%) | 6mo | $90,100 | $85 | 51 |
| 3550 Wersell Ave | 0.61mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,054 (-10%) | 3mo | $48,000 | $46 | 47 |
| 3020 Mulberry St | 0.75mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,155 (-2%) | 8mo | $77,000 | $67 | 47 |
| 358 E Manhattan Blvd | 0.71mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,032 (-12%) | 6mo | $65,000 | $63 | 37 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.89% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 1.8%
- Equity multiple
- 1.07×
- Total profit
- $1,536
- Equity at exit
- $11,913
- IRR
- 12.2%
- Equity multiple
- 2.01×
- Total profit
- $22,514
- Equity at exit
- $6,908
Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 73 Landlord-Friendly
- State Ohio
- 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 43608
- Home prices YoY
- -21.3%
- Rents YoY
- 3.9%
- Active inventory
- 58
- Price-to-rent
- 6.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $958 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$419
- Tax from tax record
- −$91 /mo · $1,092/yr
- Insurance
- −$33
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$201
- Net cashflow
- $214
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $19,975
- Closing costs
- $2,397
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 24 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3474 Maher St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 736 | $1,125 | $1.53 | 44d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 3439 Jeannette Ave Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1098 | $1,095 | $1.00 | 44d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 830 Homer Ave Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1208 | $895 | $0.74 | 44d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 710 E Lake St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1242 | $1,000 | $0.81 | 14d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 3405 Beaumont Dr Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 855 | $745 | $0.87 | 14d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 524 E Hudson St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1050 | $825 | $0.79 | 44d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 524 E Hudson St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1150 | $895 | $0.78 | 21d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 516 E Hudson St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1204 | $1,098 | $0.91 | 14d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 424 E Lake St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1228 | $1,075 | $0.88 | 14d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 405 E Manhattan Blvd Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 14d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 333 E Lake St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $495 | $0.62 | 23d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 2807 Chestnut St Unit 2 Toledo, OH | 1.0 | 1.0 | 745 | $495 | $0.66 | 21d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 420 Everett St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $975 | $0.97 | 23d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 319 Dexter St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 990 | $1,005 | $1.02 | 44d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 59 E Hudson St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1368 | $1,100 | $0.80 | 44d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 227 Everett St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 914 | $850 | $0.93 | 44d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 329 Mettler St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 908 | $975 | $1.07 | 14d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 1337 Moore St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1194 | $995 | $0.83 | 21d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 2621 Chestnut St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1444 | $1,250 | $0.87 | 44d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 3010 Warsaw St Toledo, OH | 1.0 | 1.0 | 806 | $525 | $0.65 | 21d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 225 Palmer St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 924 | $895 | $0.97 | 44d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 2932 N Ontario St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $750 | $1.00 | 23d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 413 Sandusky St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $775 | $0.86 | 23d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 2023 N Erie St Toledo, OH | 1.0 | 1.0 | 951 | $685 | $0.72 | 21d | 1 | 1.43mi |
Listing history 22 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $79,900 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $79,900 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $79,900 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $79,900 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $79,900 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $79,900 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $79,900 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $79,900 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $79,900 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $79,900 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $79,900 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $79,900 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $79,900 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $79,900 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $79,900 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-05-21$79,900 Active
-
2025-10-14price $20,000 296-char remark
Show marketing remark (296 chars)
This is a charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home with a full basement. All appliances stay. Furnace & AC appproximately 5 yrs. old, HW tank is newer and electric updated. 2 car garage. Located close to freeway access, boating, golfing, shopping & parks. Well maintained property priced to move.
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2018-10-24soldstatus $131,500
-
2018-10-17soldstatus $190,000
-
2009-12-01soldstatus $20,000
-
2009-11-20soldstatus $20,000 296-char remark
Show marketing remark (296 chars)
This is a charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home with a full basement. All appliances stay. Furnace & AC appproximately 5 yrs. old, HW tank is newer and electric updated. 2 car garage. Located close to freeway access, boating, golfing, shopping & parks. Well maintained property priced to move.
-
2008-12-18$44,900 296-char remark
Show marketing remark (296 chars)
This is a charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home with a full basement. All appliances stay. Furnace & AC appproximately 5 yrs. old, HW tank is newer and electric updated. 2 car garage. Located close to freeway access, boating, golfing, shopping & parks. Well maintained property priced to move.
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,092 · $91/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,169 · $97/mo
- Expected delta
- +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 7.1%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $11,499
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,476
- − Property taxes
- −$1,092
- − Insurance
- −$400
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$920
- − Management
- −$920
- − Depreciation
- −$2,324
- Taxable income
- $1,367
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$328
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,236/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Toledo City
- NCES district ID
- 3904490
- Math proficiency
- 15% ▼ -16.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 24% ▼ -13.00%
- Median HH income
- $32,137
- Composite
- 15.76/100
- National rank
- #9276
- State rank
- #634 of 656 in OH
Livability — Toledo
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #645
- US rank
- #11442
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Toledo, OH
- County
- Lucas County · 380,724 people
- City population
- 280,811
- Metro
- Toledo, OH
- Population (ZIP)
- 13,593
- Household income
- $29,275
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 911.0
Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 420,751 people
- By 2030
- 410,187 · -2.5%
- By 2040
- 384,019 · -8.7%
- By 2050
- 355,125 · -15.6%
- By 2075
- 291,683 · -30.7%
- By 2100
- 233,670 · -44.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 57% White 25% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 91% English-only · Spanish 7%
Political lean MEDSL · Lucas
- 2024 margin
- D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -37.73%
- Current HPI
- 139.4964
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.89%
- Metro
- Toledo, OH
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.98%
- F500 in state
- 48
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 3 | $145B |
|
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| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $49B |
|
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| Financial Services | 3 | $24B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 2 | $93B |
|
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| Aerospace / Defense | 2 | $47B |
|
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| Utilities | 2 | $33B |
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Price history
+78.0% since first listed7 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-21 Listed $79,900 NORIS
- 2025-10-14 Price Changed $20,000 NORIS
- 2018-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $131,500 Public Records
- 2018-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
- 2009-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
- 2009-11-20 Sold (MLS) $20,000 NORIS
- 2008-12-18 Listed $44,900 NORIS
Property tax history
+0.1%/yrLatest (2025): $1,092 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…