1428 Orleans Ave · Keokuk, IA 52632

$61,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1888 7,000 sqft lot $48/sqft · 31% below area Est $89k · 31% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price Reduction! Motivated Seller! Great starter home at a great price that is cheaper than renting. This 2 bedroom 2 bath home sits on a corner lot right across from beautiful Rand Park. It has a fenced in back yard too. The garage has 2 stalls and its own electrical with plenty of outlets that is heated and cooled. There is a $2000.00 flooring allowance possible to choose your own flooring for the bedrooms. Call your favorite realtor today for your private showing.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1888

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: Fraise Auction & Real Estate; Listing agent: Dan Roach — 319-371-6031

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: One and one-half story single-family residence; Residential property with metal siding
• Construction: Metal siding exterior
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.16 acre (about 50 x 140); Corner lot location

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($972 rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 8.2% in Keokuk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#166 in IA, #3,002 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Keokuk Community School District (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #282 of 289 in IA (top 98%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $428 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $66.84M (100%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,043 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.13%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,091
• List price: $61,900
• Delta: -30.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
911 N 13th St	0.23mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,331 (+4%)	5mo	$84,500	$63	71
1000 Franklin St	0.33mi	2/1.5	1,338 (+4%)	8mo	$12,500	$9	68
1528 Franklin St	0.10mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,140 (-11%)	4mo	$131,000	$115	67
1025 Leighton St	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,124 (-12%)	6mo	$105,500	$94	56
11 Suncrest St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,312 (+2%)	6mo	$71,400	$54	56
116 S 9th St	0.71mi	2/2.5	1,332 (+4%)	3mo	$20,000	$15	56
508 N 9th St	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,112 (-13%)	4mo	$88,000	$79	56
1922 Exchange St	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,331 (+4%)	2mo	$97,000	$73	51
617 Concert St	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-2%)	13mo	$35,000	$28	45
1721 Johnson St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,142 (-11%)	5mo	$30,000	$26	42
2114 Logan Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (-15%)	9mo	$139,000	$127	34
1310 Bank St	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,448 (+13%)	13mo	$57,500	$40	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $5,026
• Equity at exit: $9,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $23,982
• Equity at exit: $5,352

Cash invested: $17,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52632

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $972 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,517/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $674

Max offer price $61,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,475
• Closing costs: $1,857
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 471-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   price $61,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $66,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $66,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $66,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $66,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $66,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $66,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $66,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $66,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $66,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $66,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $66,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $66,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $66,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $66,900 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $66,900 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    price $66,900 436-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    listed $66,900,000 Active 436-char remark
20. 2025-02-17
    price $61,900
21. 2025-01-28
    listed $74,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,517
• − Insurance: −$976
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$933
• − Management: −$933
• − Depreciation: −$1,801
• Taxable income: $2,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$488
• After-tax cash flow: $2,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keokuk Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915630
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,973
• Composite: 42.35/100
• National rank: #3249
• State rank: #282 of 289 in IA

Livability — Keokuk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #3002

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keokuk, IA
• Population (ZIP): 11,904

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,813 people
• By 2030: 32,835 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 30,690 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 28,777 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,568 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 21,983 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 35.0% · R 62.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+16.1 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.80%
• Current HPI: 122.2866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $61,900 IAR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $66,900 IAR
• 2026-04-30 Listed $66,900,000 IAR
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $61,900 IAR
• 2025-01-28 Listed $74,900 IAR

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,517 · +78.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.