314 N 21st St · Louisville, KY 40203

$16,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 791 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 1900 1,816 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is knocking at 314 N 21st St with this classic shotgun-style home situated proudly on a corner lot and is ready for a complete transformation. With its traditional layout featuring a spacious living room at the front, a generously sized bedroom in the middle, and a kitchen positioned at the rear, the home offers a strong floorplan for those with vision and creativity. Located just minutes from downtown Louisville, this property is ideally positioned for redevelopment, whether you're an investor looking for your next project or a buyer eager to bring new life to a historic-style home.

Key facts

• Strong floorplan
• Historic-style home
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BEDROOM
• KITCHEN POSITIONED AT THE REAR
• STRONG FLOORPLAN
• HISTORIC-STYLE HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family bungalow; One story; Built in 1900
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Lot dimensions approximately 19 x 93

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (primary bedroom on the first floor); Primary bedroom is on the first floor; First-floor primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; No basement; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $16k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($922 rent vs $16k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 51.8% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $111 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $480 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,760 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 51.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 162.37%
• DSCR: 8.22
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $44,296
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 N 21st St	0.00mi	1/1.0	791 (0%)	1mo	$13,000	$16	99
331 N 23rd St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	855 (+8%)	4mo	$105,000	$123	70
2220 Saint Xavier St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	848 (+7%)	9mo	$50,000	$59	66
2230 Congress St	0.42mi	1/1.0	856 (+8%)	2mo	$38,500	$45	64
428 N 20th St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	894 (+13%)	7mo	$46,000	$51	62
216 N 25th St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (+1)	840 (+6%)	6mo	$85,000	$101	61
116 N 25th St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (+1)	814 (+3%)	16mo	$50,000	$61	57
1811 Owen St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (+1)	870 (+10%)	18mo	$48,900	$56	53
1707 Baird St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (+1)	896 (+13%)	3mo	$45,000	$50	52
315 N 26th St	0.51mi	1/1.0	878 (+11%)	7mo	$29,000	$33	52
663 N 25th St	0.71mi	1/1.0	750 (-5%)	13mo	$57,900	$77	47
2214 Cedar St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	886 (+12%)	4mo	$46,000	$52	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.20×
• Total profit: $36,719
• Equity at exit: $2,386

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.89×
• Total profit: $84,615
• Equity at exit: $1,383

Cash invested: $4,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40203

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $922 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$84
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $378/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $155

Max offer price $16,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,000
• Closing costs: $480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
331 N 23rd St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	855	$1,150	$1.35	17d	1	0.17mi
2132 Rowan St Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$820	$0.94	3d	4	0.18mi
519 N 20th St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	550	$795	$1.45	24d	1	0.24mi
200 N 18th St Unit 200-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$775	$1.05	20d	1	0.28mi
322 N 24th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	16d	1	0.28mi
112 N 18th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	944	$1,050	$1.11	24d	1	0.32mi
500 N 17th St Apt 309 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	775	$1,200	$1.55	24d	1	0.34mi
500 N 17th St Unit 305 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	825	$1,100	$1.33	24d	1	0.34mi
500 N 17th St Unit 301 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	775	$1,200	$1.55	16d	1	0.34mi
214 N 17th St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	15d	1	0.36mi
220 Doctor W. J. Hodge St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	570	$700	$1.23	17d	1	0.39mi
451 N 25th St Unit Mk Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	988	$875	$0.89	3d	1	0.41mi
2539 Bank St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	900	$750	$0.83	24d	1	0.52mi
1622 W Market St Apt 104 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.5	771	$965	$1.25	24d	1	0.53mi
1612 W Market St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.54mi
2510 Portland Ave Unit 206 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	615	$950	$1.54	24d	1	0.61mi
353 N 27th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	24d	1	0.61mi
2510 Portland Ave Unit 203 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	625	$995	$1.59	3d	1	0.61mi
2717 Slevin St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	620	$725	$1.17	16d	1	0.65mi
515 S 20th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	16d	1	0.66mi
2614 W Jefferson St Unit 2614-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	24d	1	0.68mi
2614 W Jefferson St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$695	$1.10	20d	1	0.68mi
2221 W Madison St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	21d	1	0.69mi
2300 W Madison St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	24d	1	0.73mi
2718 W Jefferson St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	21d	1	0.74mi
2718 W Jefferson St Unit 2718-3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	24d	1	0.74mi
2925 Slevin St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	896	$775	$0.86	3d	1	0.85mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	17d	1	0.87mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	24d	1	0.87mi
2922 Bank St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	—	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	24d	1	0.89mi
1700 Magazine St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	17d	1	0.94mi
2411 Elliott Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	892	$895	$1.00	24d	1	0.96mi
509 N 31st St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$725	$0.91	16d	1	1.03mi
509 N 31st St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$795	$0.99	24d	1	1.03mi
2310 W Broadway Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	3d	1	1.03mi
3120 Bank St Unit B Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$795	$1.06	24d	1	1.08mi
2733 Chase Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	16d	1	1.14mi
980 W Liberty St Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1026	$861	$0.84	24d	133	1.15mi
521 N 33rd St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	24d	1	1.15mi
3124 Vermont Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$699	$1.08	24d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $16,000
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $17,500 Active
4. 2008-08-18
   historical
5. 2008-02-18
   listed $14,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $378 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $378 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$896
• − Property taxes: −$378
• − Insurance: −$80
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$885
• − Management: −$885
• − Depreciation: −$465
• Taxable income: $7,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,793
• After-tax cash flow: $5,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 17,742
• Household income: $30,794
• Rent vs Own: 75.1% rent · 24.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1603.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 44% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.74%
• Current HPI: 405.1872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+7.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $16,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $17,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2008-08-18 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2008-02-18 Listed $14,950 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $378 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.