159 Ponderosa Dr · Ruidoso, NM 88345

$138,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 641 sqft · Other public records · 385 Days on market

Built 1960 9,148 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer-Upper Opportunity - 159 Ponderosa Drive, Ruidoso, NM 2 Bed | 1 Bath | 641 Sq Ft | 9,147 Sq Ft LotInvestor Special - Blank Canvas in the Mountains!Welcome to 159 Ponderosa Drive, a rare opportunity to create your dream mountain retreat in the heart of Ruidoso's charming Brady Canyon neighborhood. This property is completely gutted, offering a clean slate for your vision--whether you're an investor, contractor, or homeowner looking for a custom renovation project. Property Features:2-bedroom, 1-bathroom floor plan (flexible layout potential)641 sq ft of interior spaceExpansive wooded lot

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 384 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($642/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#40 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ruidoso Municipal Schools (town): math 16% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 29 in NM (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Vista Primary (497 students, 100% FRL); Ruidoso Middle (math 13% / reading 52%, grade F, #10 of 27 statewide, top 35%, 394 students, 100% FRL); Ruidoso High (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #27 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 532 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 59% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 596 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.73%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-18,930
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,005
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88345

• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,319/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $93	+0% $54	+5% $14	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $3	+0% $54	+5% $104	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $89	base $54	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
108 Apache Hills Dr Unit A heuristic Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	26d	1	1.03mi
106 Apache Hills Dr Unit A Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	45d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,000 Active 385 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $138,000 Active 383 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,000 Active 382 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,000 Active 381 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,000 Active 380 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 379 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $138,000 Active 377 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $138,000 Active 376 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,000 Active 373 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $138,000 Active 372 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,000 Active 371 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $138,000 Active 367 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,000 Active 366 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,000 Active 365 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 364 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 363 DOM
17. 2025-12-02
    status Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Fixer-Upper Opportunity - 159 Ponderosa Drive, Ruidoso, NM 2 Bed | 1 Bath | 641 Sq Ft | 9,147 Sq Ft LotInvestor Special - Blank Canvas in the Mountains!Welcome to 159 Ponderosa Drive, a rare opportunity to create your dream mountain retreat in the heart of Ruidoso's charming Brady Canyon neighborhood. This property is completely gutted, offering a clean slate for your vision--whether you're an investor, contractor, or homeowner looking for a custom renovation project. Property Features:2-bedroom, 1-bathroom floor plan (flexible layout potential)641 sq ft of interior spaceExpansive wooded lot

18. 2025-12-01
    historical 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Fixer-Upper Opportunity - 159 Ponderosa Drive, Ruidoso, NM 2 Bed | 1 Bath | 641 Sq Ft | 9,147 Sq Ft LotInvestor Special - Blank Canvas in the Mountains!Welcome to 159 Ponderosa Drive, a rare opportunity to create your dream mountain retreat in the heart of Ruidoso's charming Brady Canyon neighborhood. This property is completely gutted, offering a clean slate for your vision--whether you're an investor, contractor, or homeowner looking for a custom renovation project. Property Features:2-bedroom, 1-bathroom floor plan (flexible layout potential)641 sq ft of interior spaceExpansive wooded lot

19. 2025-07-03
    price $138,000 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Fixer-Upper Opportunity - 159 Ponderosa Drive, Ruidoso, NM 2 Bed | 1 Bath | 641 Sq Ft | 9,147 Sq Ft LotInvestor Special - Blank Canvas in the Mountains!Welcome to 159 Ponderosa Drive, a rare opportunity to create your dream mountain retreat in the heart of Ruidoso's charming Brady Canyon neighborhood. This property is completely gutted, offering a clean slate for your vision--whether you're an investor, contractor, or homeowner looking for a custom renovation project. Property Features:2-bedroom, 1-bathroom floor plan (flexible layout potential)641 sq ft of interior spaceExpansive wooded lot

20. 2025-05-31
    listed $142,500 Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    Fixer-Upper Opportunity - 159 Ponderosa Drive, Ruidoso, NM 2 Bed | 1 Bath | 641 Sq Ft | 9,147 Sq Ft LotInvestor Special - Blank Canvas in the Mountains!Welcome to 159 Ponderosa Drive, a rare opportunity to create your dream mountain retreat in the heart of Ruidoso's charming Brady Canyon neighborhood. This property is completely gutted, offering a clean slate for your vision--whether you're an investor, contractor, or homeowner looking for a custom renovation project. Property Features:2-bedroom, 1-bathroom floor plan (flexible layout potential)641 sq ft of interior spaceExpansive wooded lot

21. 2023-05-12
    soldstatus
22. 2023-05-11
    soldstatus Closed 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    This is a site-built home nestled on a quiet street in the Brady Canyon area, just minutes from Ruidoso's main strip. The entire interior was painted in mid-March, and the deep rectangular lot backs up to a seasonal creek. A few short, wooden steps with handrails connect the half-circle driveway to the single-level home. The heavily wooded neighborhood is teeming with deer and other wildlife despite its proximity to ample shopping, restaurants, golf courses, and more. This would make a great starter home, vacation cabin, or investment rental property.

23. 2023-03-17
    listed $129,000 Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    This is a site-built home nestled on a quiet street in the Brady Canyon area, just minutes from Ruidoso's main strip. The entire interior was painted in mid-March, and the deep rectangular lot backs up to a seasonal creek. A few short, wooden steps with handrails connect the half-circle driveway to the single-level home. The heavily wooded neighborhood is teeming with deer and other wildlife despite its proximity to ample shopping, restaurants, golf courses, and more. This would make a great starter home, vacation cabin, or investment rental property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$1,319
• − Insurance: −$1,488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,229
• − Management: −$1,229
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$1,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$396
• After-tax cash flow: $1,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ruidoso Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502310
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $44,094
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5925
• State rank: #14 of 29 in NM

Livability — Ruidoso

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #11996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ruidoso, NM
• County: Lincoln County · 7,835 people
• City population: 7,835
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• Population (ZIP): 7,835
• Household income: $53,971
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,903 people
• By 2030: 15,556 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 13,064 · -22.7%
• By 2050: 10,991 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 7,619 · -54.9%
• By 2100: 5,966 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 29.8% · R 68.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+36.4 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+32.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.17%
• Current HPI: 141.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+7.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-02 Relisted — RLCAR
• 2025-12-01 Delisted — RLCAR
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $138,000 RLCAR
• 2025-05-31 Listed $142,500 RLCAR
• 2023-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-11 Sold (MLS) — RLCAR
• 2023-03-17 Listed $129,000 RLCAR

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,319 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.