402 Masthead Rd · Gun Barrel City, TX 75156

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 237 Days on market

Built 1995 $82/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly remodeled home located in a nice neighborhood just a few blocks from lake access. All new appliances, HVAC system, septic system, and front porch. Owner financing available under certain conditions.

Key facts

• Front porch
• New appliances
• Lake access

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• HVAC SYSTEM
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• FRONT PORCH
• LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.3% in Gun Barrel City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#519 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.23%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,168
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -54.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
476 Masthead Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	0mo	$115,000	$93	75
477 Masthead Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	19mo	$125,000	$117	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $18,131
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $48,041
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,580 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $841/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $669	-5% $640	+0% $612	+5% $584	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $487	-5% $550	+0% $612	+5% $674	+10% $737
Rate	-1.0pp $662	-0.5pp $637	base $612	+0.5pp $586	+1.0pp $560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Wildflower Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,624	$1.20	44d	1	0.51mi
149 Sunset Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,300	$1.00	25d	1	1.33mi
158 Westview Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,314	$1.01	7d	1	1.36mi
138 Loon Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,235	$0.95	13d	1	1.37mi
140 Loon Bay Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,480	$1.14	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 226 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 218 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 217 DOM
17. 2025-10-21
    listed $100,000 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Newly remodeled home located in a nice neighborhood just a few blocks from lake access. All new appliances, HVAC system, septic system, and front porch. Owner financing available under certain conditions.

18. 2022-11-10
    soldstatus
19. 1993-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $841 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$989/yr (+$82/mo · 117.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$841
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,074
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,458
• After-tax cash flow: $5,886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gun Barrel City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #10212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gun Barrel City, TX
• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Listed $100,000 Fizber.com
• 2022-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+27.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $841 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.