513 Van Buren Ave · St. Paul, MN 55103

$209,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1891 6,272 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute, charming 1 1/2 story that's easy to like near the light rail. Freshly painted inside and out. New carpet and appliances. Large eat in kitchen along with separate formal dining. Possible to combine formal dining with living room for almost twice the lounging space. Nice enclosed front porch adds to curb appeal. Garage with new roof and overhead garage door. If you're looking for somewhere to just move in and enjoy this is a must see.

Key facts

• 6,272 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1891

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.144 acres (approx. 50 x 125)
• Financial info: Conventional financing available

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 1-car garage (8x9, 10' garage door height)
• Utilities: City water (in street); City sewer (in street); Electric fuel
• Home design: Residential property; One-and-one-half story layout; Entry faces Van Buren Avenue area
• Construction: Block foundation; Built-in living area of 1,266 above grade; Main level finished area 798
• Exterior features: Porch; Balcony; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (two bedrooms on the upper level, one bedroom on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central air
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining room or separate formal dining available; Hardwood floors; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $724 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Capitol Hill Magnet/Rondo (math 53% / reading 68%, grade B-, #203 of 857 statewide, top 24%, 1,082 students, 44% FRL); Hidden River Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #199 of 258 statewide, top 78%, 559 students, 61% FRL); Central Senior High (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #46 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,691 students, 49% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Paul Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 45 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,788/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 787% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $210k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1891 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1891 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.78%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $15,114
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $85,230
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55103

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,788 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,488/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $842	-5% $783	+0% $724	+5% $664	+10% $605
Rent	-10% $503	-5% $614	+0% $724	+5% $834	+10% $944
Rate	-1.0pp $829	-0.5pp $777	base $724	+0.5pp $669	+1.0pp $614

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	3d	23	0.93mi
253 Kellogg Blvd W Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1208	$3,198	$2.65	4d	12	1.45mi
101 10th St E Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	853	$2,490	$2.92	1d	20	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $209,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 503-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $209,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,488 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,488 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,488
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,677
• − Management: −$2,677
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $5,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,368
• After-tax cash flow: $7,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,125
• Household income: $48,390
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 787.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 28% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Vietnam, Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 16% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.28%
• Current HPI: 327.7672
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+412.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $209,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $209,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-13 Sold (MLS) $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-13 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-02 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-13 Price Changed $129,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-06 Price Changed $134,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-17 Listed $144,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-07 Listed $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-17 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-27 Listed $134,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-06 Sold (MLS) $80,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-02 Listed $87,925 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-11 Listed $109,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1992-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,488 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.