21364 Cambridge Ave · Lexington Park, MD 20653

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1980 6,231 sqft lot $208/sqft · 20% above area Est $166k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and under $200,000! Ideal for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Situated on a fully fenced, flat, and usable lot—perfect for pets, recreation, or entertaining. Home is well-maintained with opportunity for cosmetic updates to suit your style. Major improvements include roof and HVAC replaced in 2021, dishwasher replaced in 2021, and new sliding glass door installed in 2024. Conveniently located with easy access to PAX River Naval Air Station and Route 235 for commuting, shopping, and dining. Practically no money down- USDA eligible. First-time buyers should inquire with their lender about the Maryland Mortgage Program (MMP).

Key facts

• 6,231 sq ft lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.0% in Lexington Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#331 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 94 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $200k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.99%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,441
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 20.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47443 Southampton Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	10mo	$225,000	$234	87
21361 Cambridge Ave	0.02mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	16mo	$229,950	$240	85
47481 Southampton Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	912 (-5%)	20mo	$143,000	$157	70
47648 Wheeler Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	912 (-5%)	17mo	$258,000	$283	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,726
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,203
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20653

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,262/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $486	-5% $429	+0% $373	+5% $316	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $292	+0% $373	+5% $453	+10% $534
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $424	base $373	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $199,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $199,900 Active 666-char remark

   Show marketing remark (666 chars)

   Move-in ready and under $200,000! Ideal for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Situated on a fully fenced, flat, and usable lot—perfect for pets, recreation, or entertaining. Home is well-maintained with opportunity for cosmetic updates to suit your style. Major improvements include roof and HVAC replaced in 2021, dishwasher replaced in 2021, and new sliding glass door installed in 2024. Conveniently located with easy access to PAX River Naval Air Station and Route 235 for commuting, shopping, and dining. Practically no money down- USDA eligible. First-time buyers should inquire with their lender about the Maryland Mortgage Program (MMP).

3. 2026-04-19
   historical $199,900 666-char remark

   Show marketing remark (666 chars)

   Move-in ready and under $200,000! Ideal for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Situated on a fully fenced, flat, and usable lot—perfect for pets, recreation, or entertaining. Home is well-maintained with opportunity for cosmetic updates to suit your style. Major improvements include roof and HVAC replaced in 2021, dishwasher replaced in 2021, and new sliding glass door installed in 2024. Conveniently located with easy access to PAX River Naval Air Station and Route 235 for commuting, shopping, and dining. Practically no money down- USDA eligible. First-time buyers should inquire with their lender about the Maryland Mortgage Program (MMP).

4. 2024-06-12
   historical
5. 2024-06-08
   price $179,900
6. 2024-06-01
   status Active
7. 2024-05-25
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2024-05-25
   price $185,000
9. 2024-05-19
   listed $190,000 Active
10. 2024-05-11
    historical
11. 2017-10-02
    soldstatus $93,000
12. 2017-09-27
    soldstatus $93,000
13. 2017-09-27
    soldstatus $93,000 Sold
14. 2017-07-26
    status Contract
15. 2017-07-19
    listed $99,990 Active
16. 2003-10-22
    soldstatus $48,100
17. 1980-04-24
    soldstatus $7,000
18. 1979-07-24
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,262 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$459/yr (+$38/mo · 36.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,262
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
• − Management: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,263
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$303
• After-tax cash flow: $4,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Lexington Park

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #17418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington Park, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 26,852
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 26,852
• Household income: $103,048
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1571.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.67%
• Current HPI: 256.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+471.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-19 Coming Soon $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-08 Price Changed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-01 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-25 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-25 Price Changed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-19 Listed $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-11 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-27 Sold (MLS) $93,000 MRIS
• 2017-09-27 Sold (MLS) $93,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-07-26 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-07-19 Listed $99,990 MRIS
• 2003-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $48,100 Public Records
• 1980-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records
• 1979-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,262 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.