3195 Main St · Mexico, NY 13114

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1900 0.53 ac lot Est $211k · 38% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tons of opportunity await in this blank-canvas, old-style home! Conveniently located just outside the town of Mexico, this two-story charmer is full of historic character and ready for your personal touch. At the heart of the home is a spacious kitchen, offering plenty of room to create your ideal gathering space. Just off the kitchen are two versatile smaller rooms—perfect for walk-in closets, home offices, or creative flex spaces. On the opposite side, a generous family room flows seamlessly into a cozy living room and the first-floor bedroom, providing a practical and comfortable layout. Dual staircases lead to the second floor, where you’ll find another full bathroom and thr

Key facts

• Cozy living room
• Dual staircases
• Full bathroom

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• VERSATILE SMALLER ROOMS
• GENEROUS FAMILY ROOM
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• DUAL STAIRCASES
• FULL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.1% in Mexico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#756 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mexico Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #540 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.24%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,600
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3238-40 Main St	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,680 (+8%)	6mo	$198,500	$118	68
248 Munger Hill Rd	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,488 (-5%)	6mo	$87,500	$59	65
1 S Jefferson St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,606 (+3%)	10mo	$250,000	$156	63
97 & 99 Wayne St	0.51mi	3/3.0	1,522 (-2%)	12mo	$260,000	$171	58
6 Clinton St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,378 (-12%)	8mo	$170,000	$123	54
211 Munger Hill Rd	0.58mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,728 (+11%)	0mo	$300,000	$174	48
5620 Norman Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,672 (+7%)	20mo	$225,000	$135	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $78,987
• Equity at exit: $117,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.21×
• Total profit: $226,159
• Equity at exit: $252,561

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13114

• Home prices YoY: 18.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,524/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,092

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $165	+0% $129	+5% $92	+10% $55
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $79	+0% $129	+5% $178	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $162	base $129	+0.5pp $95	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-11-14
   listed $130,000 Active
4. 2025-10-30
   historical
5. 2025-09-05
   price $130,000
6. 2025-07-07
   price $138,500
7. 2025-06-12
   status Active
8. 2025-05-19
   status Pending
9. 2025-05-05
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2024-10-30
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,524 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,860 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,524
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$141
• After-tax cash flow: $1,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexico Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619170
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,635
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5691
• State rank: #540 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mexico

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #756
• US rank: #14489

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexico, NY
• City population: 7,313
• Population (ZIP): 7,313

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.65%
• Current HPI: 327.6719
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-11 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $130,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $130,000 CNYIS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $138,500 CNYIS
• 2025-06-12 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-05-19 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-05-05 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2024-10-30 Listed $139,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,524 · -17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.