3231 Portside Dr · Thunderbird Bay, TX 76857

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 238 Days on market

Built 1995 0.69 ac lot $99/sqft · at area comps Est $117k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is ideal for anyone seeking space, storage, and a large lot. - Four Lots Totaling 0.688 Acres offers plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, and expansion. - Multiple Covered Decks enable you to enjoy outdoor living and entertaining on both the front and back of the home. - Workshop and Garages. An extra-large workshop, a separate 2-car garage, and a lawn equipment shed provide exceptional storage and project space. - Multiple Roll-Up Doors make easy access for vehicles, equipment, and materials. - Updated HVAC System (outside unit was replaced in 2021). - Metal Roof provides long-lasting durability and protection. - Rainwater Collection Systems which includes gutters and multiple storage tanks for sustainable gardening. - Greenhouse and Multiple Out-Buildings and Sheds. Perfect for hobbyists, gardeners, and those needing extra space for equipment, tools, and supplies. - 3-Car Carport offers plenty of covered parking for vehicles. - Appliances, Shop Equipment, and Lawn & Garden Equipment will convey.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Extra-large workshop
• Lawn equipment shed

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MULTIPLE COVERED DECKS
• EXTRA-LARGE WORKSHOP
• SEPARATE 2-CAR GARAGE
• LAWN EQUIPMENT SHED
• MULTIPLE ROLL-UP DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.8% in Thunderbird Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,233 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• May ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #729 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $995 of equity ($829 loan paydown + $166 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.32%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,261
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 2.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3310 Surfside Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+3%)	4mo	$95,500	$77	81
3250 Surfside Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+12%)	12mo	$149,000	$110	64
3020 Harbor Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	11mo	$21,999	$21	54
4310 Apache Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,148 (-6%)	11mo	$95,000	$83	52
4060 Lake Shore Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-9%)	23mo	$139,900	$127	45
4230 Arapaho Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	11mo	$95,000	$89	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,947
• Equity at exit: $35,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $30,752
• Equity at exit: $43,522

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76857

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $974

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $155	+0% $121	+5% $87	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $76	+0% $121	+5% $165	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $151	base $121	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 226 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $119,900 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 220 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 218 DOM
17. 2026-01-08
    price $129,900 1078-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1078 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is ideal for anyone seeking space, storage, and a large lot. - Four Lots Totaling 0.688 Acres offers plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, and expansion. - Multiple Covered Decks enable you to enjoy outdoor living and entertaining on both the front and back of the home. - Workshop and Garages. An extra-large workshop, a separate 2-car garage, and a lawn equipment shed provide exceptional storage and project space. - Multiple Roll-Up Doors make easy access for vehicles, equipment, and materials. - Updated HVAC System (outside unit was replaced in 2021). - Metal Roof provides long-lasting durability and protection. - Rainwater Collection Systems which includes gutters and multiple storage tanks for sustainable gardening. - Greenhouse and Multiple Out-Buildings and Sheds. Perfect for hobbyists, gardeners, and those needing extra space for equipment, tools, and supplies. - 3-Car Carport offers plenty of covered parking for vehicles. - Appliances, Shop Equipment, and Lawn & Garden Equipment will convey.

18. 2025-10-24
    listed $134,900 Active 1078-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1078 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is ideal for anyone seeking space, storage, and a large lot. - Four Lots Totaling 0.688 Acres offers plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, and expansion. - Multiple Covered Decks enable you to enjoy outdoor living and entertaining on both the front and back of the home. - Workshop and Garages. An extra-large workshop, a separate 2-car garage, and a lawn equipment shed provide exceptional storage and project space. - Multiple Roll-Up Doors make easy access for vehicles, equipment, and materials. - Updated HVAC System (outside unit was replaced in 2021). - Metal Roof provides long-lasting durability and protection. - Rainwater Collection Systems which includes gutters and multiple storage tanks for sustainable gardening. - Greenhouse and Multiple Out-Buildings and Sheds. Perfect for hobbyists, gardeners, and those needing extra space for equipment, tools, and supplies. - 3-Car Carport offers plenty of covered parking for vehicles. - Appliances, Shop Equipment, and Lawn & Garden Equipment will convey.

19. 2022-12-23
    historical
20. 2022-06-24
    status Active
21. 2022-06-18
    historical
22. 2021-10-21
    listed $168,500 Active
23. 2011-12-16
    historical
24. 2011-06-14
    listed $87,500
25. 2010-11-30
    historical
26. 2010-06-01
    listed $87,500
27. 1996-05-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,409/yr (+$117/mo · 179.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$785
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,081
• − Management: −$1,081
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$128
• After-tax cash flow: $1,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: May ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829520
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,809
• Composite: 36.31/100
• National rank: #9397
• State rank: #729 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Thunderbird Bay

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1233
• US rank: #21564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thunderbird Bay, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,118

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,381 people
• By 2030: 38,288 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 38,120 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 38,227 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 39,362 · +2.6%
• By 2100: 39,171 · +2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Serbian 7% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.7% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -61.5pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.6 2016: R+74.5 2012: R+71.7 2008: R+61.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Current HPI: 101.8877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+48.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $134,900 NTREIS
• 2022-12-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-06-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-06-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-10-21 Listed $168,500 NTREIS
• 2011-12-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-06-14 Listed $87,500 NTREIS
• 2010-11-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-06-01 Listed $87,500 NTREIS
• 1996-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $785 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.