2025 Grace St · Lynchburg, VA 24504

$129,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1996 6,334 sqft lot $104/sqft · 15% below area Est $153k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two-story home located in the heart of Lynchburg, just minutes from downtown dining and entertainment. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, including a convenient main-level bedroom. The open-concept main level features a spacious living room, providing a comfortable and functional layout. Step outside to enjoy the rear deck and yard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Major updates include a roof and heating and cooling systems replaced in 2022, offering added peace of mind. A great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors seeking a well-located home with easy access to everything downtown Lynchburg has to offer.

Key facts

• Main-level bedroom
• Two-story home
• Rear deck

Tags

• TWO-STORY HOME
• MAIN-LEVEL BEDROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• REAR DECK
• EASY ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $130k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.60%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,331
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -15.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2228 High St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,233 (-1%)	2mo	$21,500	$17	81
1113 18th St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+3%)	4mo	$54,500	$42	74
1930 Vine Street St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-11%)	5mo	$112,000	$101	68
1114 Knight St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,085 (-13%)	0mo	$43,600	$40	63
909 Virginia St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-15%)	6mo	$171,000	$161	62
1027 Knight St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,387 (+11%)	6mo	$95,000	$68	61
1800 Floyd St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,370 (+10%)	3mo	$190,000	$139	59
1732 Otey St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-6%)	6mo	$90,000	$77	56
1417 Floyd St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	1mo	$203,500	$182	52
1505 Wise St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,109 (-11%)	6mo	$115,000	$104	50
129 Jubilee Dr	0.54mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,108 (-11%)	5mo	$117,000	$106	45
1706 Floyd St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-13%)	6mo	$145,000	$134	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,282
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $28,581
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24504

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,091/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,046

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1810 Laurel St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	43d	1	0.37mi
1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,195	$0.89	21d	1	0.50mi
1500 Main St Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	1182	$1,600	$1.35	13d	6	0.51mi
1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	13d	1	0.52mi
1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	21d	1	0.64mi
1219 Pierce St Unit 1221 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1168	$825	$0.71	13d	1	0.81mi
1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	43d	1	0.86mi
900 Polk St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$895	$0.81	13d	1	0.87mi
1106 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1018	$875	$0.86	21d	1	0.88mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$1,167	$1.04	21d	6	0.90mi
1008 8th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,795	$1.36	21d	1	0.95mi
801 Church St Unit 8 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	875	$1,850	$2.11	13d	1	0.96mi
2205 Easley Ave Lynchburg, VA	2.0	2.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	43d	1	1.01mi
601 Jackson St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1138	$1,595	$1.40	43d	1	1.06mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	43d	1	1.08mi
612 Commerce St Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	716	$1,250	$1.74	13d	2	1.10mi
2269 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	43d	1	1.10mi
2336 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1042	$995	$0.95	13d	1	1.11mi
512 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,295	$0.97	21d	1	1.12mi
317 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	43d	1	1.25mi
1625 Shaffer St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	895	$850	$0.95	43d	1	1.26mi
2107 Park Ave Unit 4 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$785	$0.98	13d	1	1.33mi
2210 Haden St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	784	$1,050	$1.34	43d	1	1.34mi
2021 Rose Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	836	$1,095	$1.31	21d	1	1.38mi
403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	43d	1	1.38mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	43d	1	1.40mi
2205 Mayflower Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	21d	1	1.40mi
317 Grove St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	43d	1	1.41mi
318 Wadsworth St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	943	$995	$1.06	21d	1	1.42mi
905 Centerdale St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	13d	1	1.46mi
630 Park Ln Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.5	1434	$1,895	$1.32	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $139,900 Active 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    Two-story home located in the heart of Lynchburg, just minutes from downtown dining and entertainment. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms, including a convenient main-level bedroom. The open-concept main level features a spacious living room, providing a comfortable and functional layout. Step outside to enjoy the rear deck and yard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Major updates include a roof and heating and cooling systems replaced in 2022, offering added peace of mind. A great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors seeking a well-located home with easy access to everything downtown Lynchburg has to offer.

18. 1996-05-07
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,091
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,072
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$257
• After-tax cash flow: $2,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 9,632
• Household income: $52,571
• Rent vs Own: 46.4% rent · 53.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 552.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 40% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.39%
• Current HPI: 229.4423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+204.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $139,900 LMLS
• 1996-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,091 · +35.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.