1150 S Thunderbird Dr · Coldwater, MS 38632

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1974 0.28 ac lot $232/sqft · waterfront premium Est $278k · at est. · waterfront $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THE MOST GORGEOUS LAKE LOT AVAILABLE! LOTS OF WATER FRONTAGE INCLUDING A LITTLE PENINSULA ALL YOUR OWN! 2 PIERS WITH SEATING & EVEN THE BOATS STAY! HOME NEEDS LOTS OF TLC. PRICED $15,000 UNDER APPRAISAL FOR QUICK SALE!!

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $225; Association covers grounds maintenance and pool service; Community amenities include boating, clubhouse, fishing, lake, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Paved parking pad
• Security: Deadbolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One-and-one-half levels; Asphalt shingle roof; Siding exterior; Conventional foundation
• Construction: Built with siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Conventional foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Screened porch; Private entrance; Private yard; Few trees, landscaped and partly wooded lot; Waterfront with lakefront access and boat dock

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (approx. 20 x 11.8); Second bedroom on main level (approx. 11.5 x 11.5); Third bedroom on lower level (approx. 13 x 12); Sitting area off the great room on main level (approx. 8 x 7)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Breakfast bar; Blinds and metal window treatments; Deadbolt locks; Sliding doors; Walk-out heated and cooled basement; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#135 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elem (779 students, 100% FRL); Hernando Middle School (math 75% / reading 57%, grade A-, #2 of 179 statewide, top 1%, 1,150 students, 100% FRL); Hernando High School (math 69% / reading 62%, grade B, #2 of 197 statewide, top 1%, 1,419 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Desoto County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,062 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,093
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -4.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
614 Red Fox Cv	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+5%)	15mo	$249,900	$208	52
537 Thunderbird Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,258 (+10%)	4mo	$250,000	$199	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-62,405
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-93,433
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,831 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,109

Max offer price $226,100

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-145	+0% $-220	+5% $-295	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-293	+0% $-220	+5% $-148	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-87	-0.5pp $-153	base $-220	+0.5pp $-289	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $265,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   price $265,000 834-char remark
10. 2026-05-05
    listed $279,900 Active 834-char remark
11. 2016-11-16
    soldstatus
12. 2013-08-21
    soldstatus
13. 2009-09-24
    historical
14. 2008-08-27
    listed $159,900
15. 2006-02-10
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    THE MOST GORGEOUS LAKE LOT AVAILABLE! LOTS OF WATER FRONTAGE INCLUDING A LITTLE PENINSULA ALL YOUR OWN! 2 PIERS WITH SEATING & EVEN THE BOATS STAY! HOME NEEDS LOTS OF TLC. PRICED $15,000 UNDER APPRAISAL FOR QUICK SALE!!

16. 2006-02-10
    soldstatus $82,000

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    THE MOST GORGEOUS LAKE LOT AVAILABLE! LOTS OF WATER FRONTAGE INCLUDING A LITTLE PENINSULA ALL YOUR OWN! 2 PIERS WITH SEATING & EVEN THE BOATS STAY! HOME NEEDS LOTS OF TLC. PRICED $15,000 UNDER APPRAISAL FOR QUICK SALE!!

17. 2006-02-10
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    THE MOST GORGEOUS LAKE LOT AVAILABLE! LOTS OF WATER FRONTAGE INCLUDING A LITTLE PENINSULA ALL YOUR OWN! 2 PIERS WITH SEATING & EVEN THE BOATS STAY! HOME NEEDS LOTS OF TLC. PRICED $15,000 UNDER APPRAISAL FOR QUICK SALE!!

18. 2006-01-25
    historical
19. 2005-07-18
    listed $95,000

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    THE MOST GORGEOUS LAKE LOT AVAILABLE! LOTS OF WATER FRONTAGE INCLUDING A LITTLE PENINSULA ALL YOUR OWN! 2 PIERS WITH SEATING & EVEN THE BOATS STAY! HOME NEEDS LOTS OF TLC. PRICED $15,000 UNDER APPRAISAL FOR QUICK SALE!!

20. 2005-07-18
    listed $95,000

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    THE MOST GORGEOUS LAKE LOT AVAILABLE! LOTS OF WATER FRONTAGE INCLUDING A LITTLE PENINSULA ALL YOUR OWN! 2 PIERS WITH SEATING & EVEN THE BOATS STAY! HOME NEEDS LOTS OF TLC. PRICED $15,000 UNDER APPRAISAL FOR QUICK SALE!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,094 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$7,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $-861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Coldwater

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #14532

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+178.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $265,000 MLSU
• 2026-05-05 Listed $279,900 MLSU
• 2016-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-09-24 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2008-08-27 Listed $159,900 MLSU
• 2006-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-10 Sold (MLS) — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2006-02-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-01-25 Delisted — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2005-07-18 Listed $95,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2005-07-18 Listed $95,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.