22812 Creekwood Dr · Emerald Bay, TX 75762

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $145k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New home under construction in the Lakeway Harbor community of Flint Offering an efficient layout designed for low maintenance and everyday living!! Located near Lake Palestine with access to a private boat launch, this property provides a quiet setting while still being just minutes from restaurants, grocery stores, and daily essentials. Easy access to the main road makes commuting convenient. Additional new homes are being built nearby, contributing to the continued growth of the area. A great option for a primary residence, rental, or weekend retreat with long term potential in a lake area community !!

Key facts

• Private boat launch
• Quiet setting
• Lake area community

Tags

• LAKEWAY HARBOR COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BOAT LAUNCH
• QUIET SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO MAIN ROAD
• LAKE AREA COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $120 (about $10/month)

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Home design: Single family detached residence; 1 story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Lakefront on Lake Palestine

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fan(s); Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Int (math 66% / reading 50%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 26% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,808 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.56%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,152
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22797 Creekwood Dr	0.02mi	2/1.0	768 (0%)	3mo	$145,000	$189	97

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-18,580
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,729
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75762

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,325

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $141	+0% $89	+5% $38	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-24	-5% $33	+0% $89	+5% $146	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $128	base $89	+0.5pp $51	+1.0pp $11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22712 Creekwood Dr Flint, TX	2.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	15d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 612-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$334
• After-tax cash flow: $1,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This new home under construction in Lakeway Harbor offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It's a great option for a primary residence, rental, or weekend retreat with long-term potential in a lake area community.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms improves functionality and appearance.
• Both Add landscaping around the front of the house — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms improves functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the front of the house — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,704
• Household income: $90,057
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.39%
• Current HPI: 197.2375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $150,000 GTAR