10211 Sugar Branch Dr #485 · Houston, TX 77036

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Condo public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1981 $60/sqft · 15% below area Est $82k · 15% under $383/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +0.8/5.0

Key facts

• $383 HOA
• Built 1981
• Listed 208 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($1/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.6%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $512 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,125
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -14.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.73% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-7,557
• Equity at exit: $17,805

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-12,076
• Equity at exit: $19,481

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77036

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$383
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10286 Forum West Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1046	$1,200	$1.15	24d	1	0.11mi
10110 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$999	$1.02	43d	2	0.11mi
10101 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	809	$1,145	$1.41	43d	1	0.15mi
10107 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$970	$0.88	24d	1	0.27mi
10225 Bissonnet St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	992	$1,480	$1.49	2d	49	0.27mi
9898 Forum Park Dr Unit 6406 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	43d	1	0.28mi
10101 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,323	$1.60	2d	21	0.29mi
10009 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$979	$1.01	24d	1	0.33mi
9707 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1147	$992	$0.86	43d	1	0.40mi
10440 South Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	773	$1,340	$1.73	1d	27	0.46mi
9502 Woodfair Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	636	$950	$1.49	43d	31	0.60mi
9502 Woodfair Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	711	$1,093	$1.54	3d	31	0.60mi
9430 Concourse Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	719	$842	$1.17	13d	1	0.68mi
10306 S Wilcrest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,349	$1.12	43d	1	0.70mi
9475 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	725	$1,284	$1.77	5d	18	0.70mi
9445 Concourse Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$1,104	$1.54	1d	21	0.70mi
14 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,054	$1.05	24d	1	0.73mi
10300 S Wilcrest Dr Unit 10333 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,321	$1.10	3d	1	0.76mi
9350 Country Creek St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,500	$1.18	43d	1	0.81mi
9303 Woodfair Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,045	$1.32	43d	42	0.87mi
8606 S Course Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	913	$1,050	$1.15	43d	1	0.94mi
9907 Club Creek Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1170	$1,120	$0.96	24d	1	0.97mi
9901 Club Creek Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	855	$992	$1.16	1d	13	0.98mi
10411 South Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,495	$1.97	43d	1	1.00mi
8600 S Course Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	706	$1,218	$1.72	1d	31	1.02mi
9255 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,049	$1.40	43d	1	1.04mi
10925 Stancliff Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	931	$1,425	$1.53	43d	1	1.07mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,891	$1.53	3d	1	1.10mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Unit 10952 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,974	$1.47	43d	1	1.10mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Unit 10976 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	931	$1,544	$1.66	43d	1	1.10mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,923	$1.55	10d	1	1.10mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	931	$1,519	$1.63	7d	1	1.10mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	931	$1,519	$1.63	5d	1	1.10mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	931	$1,511	$1.62	3d	1	1.10mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	931	$1,543	$1.66	10d	1	1.10mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	931	$1,529	$1.64	43d	1	1.11mi
10919 Stancliff Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,934	$1.56	11d	1	1.11mi
9797 Leawood Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,175	$1.07	43d	2	1.11mi
10250 Lands End Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,399	$1.86	24d	16	1.16mi
10027 Spice Ln Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,180	$1.08	7d	12	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $383 · $4,596/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $70,000 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $83,000 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $83,000 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $83,000 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $83,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $83,000 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $83,000 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $83,000 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $83,000 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-01-07
    price $83,000
15. 2025-11-21
    listed $90,000 Active
16. 2025-10-31
    historical
17. 2025-08-15
    listed $90,000 Active
18. 2025-05-01
    historical
19. 2025-01-10
    price $90,000
20. 2024-08-26
    price $95,000
21. 2024-06-20
    price $100,000
22. 2024-02-15
    listed $110,000 Active
23. 2023-01-20
    historical
24. 2022-11-30
    listed $110,000 Active
25. 2012-09-05
    soldstatus
26. 2011-06-10
    soldstatus
27. 2011-06-07
    soldstatus
28. 2011-06-06
    historical
29. 2010-12-19
    listed $18,500
30. 2008-12-19
    soldstatus
31. 2000-02-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,755 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,755 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 30% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − HOA: −$4,596
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable loss: −$848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,770
• Household income: $45,716
• Rent vs Own: 82.3% rent · 17.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4374.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 28% Black 11% Asian 9% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Cuban 3%
• Foreign-born: 55% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 20% English-only · Spanish 66% Chinese 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.73%
• Current HPI: 221.1045
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.62%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+348.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $83,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-26 Price Changed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-15 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-30 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2012-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-06-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-12-19 Listed $18,500 HARMLS
• 2008-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,755 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.