Mays Plan · Springfield, FL 32404

$269,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,569 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance layout designed for modern lifestyles. Two secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, surrounding a full bathroom. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday transitions and multitasking. A luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $361,633.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-898 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.7% in Springfield — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,731 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.64%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,633
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -25.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3665 Cedar Park Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,751 (+12%)	1mo	$369,000	$211	58
3675 Cedar Park Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,768 (+13%)	16mo	$350,000	$198	47
3857 Red Deer Cir Lot 52	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,799 (+15%)	9mo	$389,900	$217	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-119,502
• Equity at exit: $53,921

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.90×
• Total profit: $-192,423
• Equity at exit: $31,267

Cash invested: $101,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,027 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,896
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$452 /mo · $5,424/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,163

Max offer price $231,750

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,408
• Closing costs: $10,849
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3884 Red Deer Cir Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1972	$2,200	$1.12	21d	1	0.61mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	21d	1	0.78mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	13d	1	0.93mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	21d	1	0.94mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	21d	1	0.97mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	21d	1	1.26mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	13d	1	1.30mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	21d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,990 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,990 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,990 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,990 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,990 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,990 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,990 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,990 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,990 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $269,990 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $294,990 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-02-19
    price $294,990 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance layout designed for modern lifestyles. Two secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, surrounding a full bathroom. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday transitions and multitasking. A luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

19. 2026-02-18
    price $284,990 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance layout designed for modern lifestyles. Two secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, surrounding a full bathroom. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday transitions and multitasking. A luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

20. 2026-02-16
    listed $279,990 Active 410-char remark

    Show marketing remark (410 chars)

    This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance layout designed for modern lifestyles. Two secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, surrounding a full bathroom. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday transitions and multitasking. A luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,257
• − Property taxes: −$5,424
• − Insurance: −$1,808
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − Depreciation: −$10,520
• Taxable loss: −$17,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,218
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $284,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $279,990 Zillow