1511 N Lyon Ave · Springfield, MO 65803

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1926 6,098 sqft lot $114/sqft · at area comps Est $136k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently updated single-story residence featuring a newer roof and a 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom configuration. The interior layout includes two primary suites, each equipped with a private full bathroom. Recent improvements include fresh paint and updated fixtures throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch and a side entrance with an accessibility ramp. The property includes a fully fenced backyard. This location provides immediate access to Division Street and is situated less than 2 miles from the I-44 interchange. Central location within 1 mile of Cox North Hospital and Drury University, and within 2.5 miles of Missouri State University, Evangel University, and the Historic Commercial Street district.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Fresh paint
• Two primary suites

Tags

• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• PRIVATE FULL BATHROOM
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($557/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,774 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,338
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 6.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1890 N Douglas Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+2%)	4mo	$174,900	$140	74
1850 N Robberson Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,264 (+3%)	3mo	$199,900	$158	67
937 N Missouri Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,207 (-2%)	0mo	$180,000	$149	66
1534 N Grant Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,349 (+10%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	65
1863 N Grant Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,140 (-8%)	2mo	$149,900	$131	64
1015 N Concord Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,272 (+3%)	3mo	$129,900	$102	60
832 West Calhoun St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-11%)	1mo	$99,900	$91	56
636 W Scott St	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,077 (-13%)	2mo	$139,900	$130	51
2015 N Benton Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-12%)	3mo	$129,900	$120	47
826 N Concord Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,114 (-10%)	3mo	$165,000	$148	45
920 N Broadway Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,124 (-9%)	2mo	$149,777	$133	41
1310 W Florida St	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,086 (-12%)	4mo	$125,000	$115	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-18,366
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,503
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65803

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,118 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $536/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,059

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
603 W Division St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$995	$1.22	13d	1	0.11mi
203 W Commercial St Unit 2F Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	21d	1	0.24mi
1530 N Robberson Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,425	$1.27	43d	1	0.26mi
1623 N Jefferson Ave Unit B Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	43d	1	0.32mi
317 E Chase St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	915	$1,100	$1.20	43d	1	0.42mi
616 W Webster St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	1178	$1,050	$0.89	13d	1	0.43mi
1409 N Washington Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	839	$1,405	$1.67	13d	2	0.54mi
716 E Locust St Unit A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	915	$850	$0.93	23d	1	0.66mi
647 W Central St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	882	$1,050	$1.19	23d	1	0.67mi
407 E Dale St Apt B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$795	$1.10	13d	1	0.68mi
815 N Grant Ave Unit A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	801	$625	$0.78	43d	1	0.73mi
2034 N Washington Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	43d	1	0.75mi
2230 N Campbell Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1084	$1,095	$1.01	43d	1	0.76mi
2120 N Johnston Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$925	$1.05	43d	1	0.83mi
805 E Garfield St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$950	$1.00	13d	1	0.84mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	885	$865	$0.98	23d	1	0.85mi
1306 N Frisco Ave Apt A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5–2.0	970	$995	$1.03	13d	19	0.97mi
1112 E Locust St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$945	$1.12	23d	1	1.03mi
1636 N National Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1000	$995	$0.99	43d	1	1.11mi
235 N Market Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$1,267	$0.94	23d	5	1.20mi
235 N Market Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$1,267	$0.94	13d	4	1.20mi
2234 N Travis Ave Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	890	$750	$0.84	43d	1	1.20mi
520 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,538	$1.06	13d	5	1.21mi
138 Park Central Sq Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$2,489	$2.30	13d	8	1.22mi
2126 N Lexington Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	990	$895	$0.90	13d	1	1.23mi
2117 N Lexington Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,195	$1.15	43d	1	1.24mi
1339 E Division St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,350	$1.14	23d	1	1.26mi
518 W College St Unit UBL 106 Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	43d	1	1.27mi
2153 N National Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1163	$1,195	$1.03	13d	1	1.28mi
211 S Market Ave Springfield, MO	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1442	$1,425	$0.99	21d	5	1.29mi
211 S Market Ave Springfield, MO	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1442	$1,425	$0.99	23d	5	1.29mi
733 W College St Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$750	$1.07	13d	1	1.29mi
209 W McDaniel St Unit 209-207 Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	43d	1	1.30mi
1127 W Talmage St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,650	$1.42	43d	1	1.33mi
535 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,495	$1.36	43d	1	1.34mi
623 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,300	$1.10	43d	1	1.35mi
309 S Jefferson Ave Unit 211 Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	762	$767	$1.01	43d	1	1.35mi
710 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,695	$1.26	43d	1	1.40mi
430 W Pershing St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	765	$1,195	$1.56	13d	1	1.41mi
2054 N Rogers Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	888	$925	$1.04	13d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    price $144,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $149,900 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Recently updated single-story residence featuring a newer roof and a 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom configuration. The interior layout includes two primary suites, each equipped with a private full bathroom. Recent improvements include fresh paint and updated fixtures throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch and a side entrance with an accessibility ramp. The property includes a fully fenced backyard. This location provides immediate access to Division Street and is situated less than 2 miles from the I-44 interchange. Central location within 1 mile of Cox North Hospital and Drury University, and within 2.5 miles of Missouri State University, Evangel University, and the Historic Commercial Street district.

17. 2026-04-17
    price $154,999 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Recently updated single-story residence featuring a newer roof and a 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom configuration. The interior layout includes two primary suites, each equipped with a private full bathroom. Recent improvements include fresh paint and updated fixtures throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch and a side entrance with an accessibility ramp. The property includes a fully fenced backyard. This location provides immediate access to Division Street and is situated less than 2 miles from the I-44 interchange. Central location within 1 mile of Cox North Hospital and Drury University, and within 2.5 miles of Missouri State University, Evangel University, and the Historic Commercial Street district.

18. 2026-03-20
    listed $160,000 Active 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Recently updated single-story residence featuring a newer roof and a 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom configuration. The interior layout includes two primary suites, each equipped with a private full bathroom. Recent improvements include fresh paint and updated fixtures throughout. Exterior features include a covered front porch and a side entrance with an accessibility ramp. The property includes a fully fenced backyard. This location provides immediate access to Division Street and is situated less than 2 miles from the I-44 interchange. Central location within 1 mile of Cox North Hospital and Drury University, and within 2.5 miles of Missouri State University, Evangel University, and the Historic Commercial Street district.

19. 2025-12-16
    listed $165,000 Active
20. 2025-05-01
    listed $160,000 Active
21. 2023-08-29
    historical $1,195
22. 2023-08-08
    listed $1,195
23. 2023-07-30
    historical $1,195
24. 2020-12-21
    soldstatus
25. 2020-12-15
    soldstatus
26. 2020-10-22
    listed $39,500
27. 2015-05-11
    soldstatus
28. 2005-05-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $536 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$821/yr (+$68/mo · 153.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$536
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$450
• After-tax cash flow: $1,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 42,882
• Household income: $50,572
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.08%
• Current HPI: 205.0439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+279.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $149,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $154,999 SOMO
• 2026-03-20 Listed $160,000 SOMO
• 2025-12-16 Listed $165,000 SOMO
• 2025-05-01 Listed $160,000 SOMO
• 2023-08-29 Rental Removed $1,195 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-08 Listed for Rent $1,195 APPFOLIO
• 2023-07-30 Rental Removed $1,195 APPFOLIO
• 2020-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-15 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-10-22 Listed $39,500 SOMO
• 2015-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $536 · +17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.