12771 SW 58th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2005 0.28 ac lot $132/sqft · 29% below area Est $291k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location with this 3/2 home on . 28 acre fenced corner lot that is fenced. This home has great floor plan with split bedrooms, living room and dining room combined plus eat-in-area in the kitchen with breakfast nook. Primary Bedroom and bathroom a very nice size with a exit door that could lead out to a future pool area.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence (Residential); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a lot of about 0.28 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Sliding doors; Chain link fencing; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 90 x 135

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Split bedroom floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marion Oaks Elementary School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 939 students, 65% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,582 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.13%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,501
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -29.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5447 SW 129th Pl	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,683 (+9%)	2mo	$269,000	$160	71
6010 SW 128th ST Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+0%)	5mo	$259,000	$167	68
5852 SW 129th Place Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-1%)	22mo	$225,000	$147	62
5775 SW 132nd Pl	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (-3%)	4mo	$275,965	$184	61
5195 SW 128th Street Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-11%)	13mo	$249,900	$181	59
5803 SW 132nd Pl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-14%)	3mo	$260,965	$197	48
455 Marion Oaks Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,349 (-13%)	23mo	$235,000	$174	48
5598 SW 128th Pl	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,765 (+14%)	23mo	$305,000	$173	46
4784 SW 131st Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-14%)	2mo	$263,000	$197	41
5900 SW 129th Place RD Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,765 (+14%)	23mo	$299,900	$170	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,389
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-16,327
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,285/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $351	+0% $293	+5% $235	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $137	-5% $215	+0% $293	+5% $371	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $345	base $293	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5726 SW 129th Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	22d	1	0.29mi
5844 SW 132nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,850	$1.39	15d	1	0.57mi
12816 SW 61st Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2134	$2,100	$0.98	15d	1	0.62mi
4691 SW 129th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1643	$1,850	$1.13	22d	1	0.72mi
13664 SW 61st Ct Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,500	$1.26	22d	1	0.95mi
13915 SW 64th Terrace Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,524	$1.36	15d	1	0.95mi
4428 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	22d	1	1.03mi
13616 SW 61st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,595	$1.21	22d	1	1.05mi
13153 SW 65th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	22d	1	1.13mi
6555 SW 129th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	15d	1	1.16mi
13401 SW 43rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	15d	1	1.21mi
3971 SW 130th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	15d	1	1.27mi
6732 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,950	$1.10	15d	1	1.30mi
13205 SW 65th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1802	$2,200	$1.22	15d	1	1.35mi
13690 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1802	$2,200	$1.22	15d	1	1.36mi
3892 SW 130th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	15d	1	1.38mi
13805 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,800	$1.20	22d	1	1.38mi
4052 SW 132nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	22d	1	1.39mi
6872 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	22d	1	1.41mi
251 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,795	$1.31	22d	1	1.42mi
6872 SW 132nd Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	22d	1	1.43mi
3995 SW 134th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,100	$1.20	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-10
    price $205,000 328-char remark
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $220,000 Active 328-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    historical
20. 2026-04-24
    price $220,000
21. 2026-03-05
    price $235,000
22. 2026-01-30
    price $245,000
23. 2025-11-15
    price $255,000
24. 2025-10-11
    price $265,000
25. 2025-08-28
    listed $275,000 Active
26. 2006-03-03
    soldstatus $189,200
27. 1999-01-19
    soldstatus $61,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,285 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$416/yr (+$35/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,285
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38
• After-tax cash flow: $3,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+234.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $189,200 Public Records
• 1999-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $61,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,285 · +22.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.