11830 SW 45th Ter · Worthington Springs, FL 32054

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1994 $97/sqft · 62% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 1994 singlewide on half acre. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath. Could be a rental income or personal property. Conveniently located between Lake City, Gainesville, Lake Butler and Starke, making it a breeze to run errands, pick up dinner, with an abundance of entertainment choices.

Key facts

• Built 1994
• Listed 145 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($994 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#689 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Union (town): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 73 in FL (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.31%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,000
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -61.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $62,721
• Equity at exit: $80,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $173,835
• Equity at exit: $174,656

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32054

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $721/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $720

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $242	+0% $216	+5% $191	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $177	+0% $216	+5% $256	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $239	base $216	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 127 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-02-05
    price $89,900 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Well maintained 1994 singlewide on half acre. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath. Could be a rental income or personal property. Conveniently located between Lake City, Gainesville, Lake Butler and Starke, making it a breeze to run errands, pick up dinner, with an abundance of entertainment choices.

18. 2026-01-24
    listed $99,900 Active 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Well maintained 1994 singlewide on half acre. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath. Could be a rental income or personal property. Conveniently located between Lake City, Gainesville, Lake Butler and Starke, making it a breeze to run errands, pick up dinner, with an abundance of entertainment choices.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$25/yr (+$2/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$721
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$288
• After-tax cash flow: $2,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union
• NCES district ID: 1201890
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,908
• Composite: 48.59/100
• National rank: #2111
• State rank: #17 of 73 in FL

Livability — Worthington Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #689
• US rank: #14375

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 156
• Population (ZIP): 12,467

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,613 people
• By 2030: 14,322 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,780 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 13,325 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 11,965 · -18.1%
• By 2100: 9,102 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.6% · R 83.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.9pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+65.3 2016: R+62.4 2012: R+49.0 2008: R+49.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.99%
• Current HPI: 239.3346
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $89,900 realMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed $99,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $721 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.