208 W 4th St · Mount Carmel, PA 17851

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Other · 10 Days on market

Built 1930 1,306 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in and ready for you. Half double with 2 3/4 baths and 2 bedrooms. SQ FT taken from county tax card. Schedule through Showing Time.

Key facts

• 1,306 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks; Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breaker electric; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asbestos; Frame construction; Shingle roof; No foundation specified; Built area above grade: 1,320
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Storm door(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present
• Interior features: Window coverings; Unfinished basement; Accessible entrance
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $574 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 12.2% in Mount Carmel — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mount Carmel Area El Sch (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,146 of 1,518 statewide, top 76%, 790 students, 100% FRL); Mount Carmel Area Jh (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #429 of 512 statewide, top 84%, 263 students, 100% FRL); Mount Carmel Area Hs (math 57% / reading 75%, grade B, #62 of 437 statewide, top 14%, 493 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 50% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $80k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.77%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $61,152
• Equity at exit: $51,811

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $150,948
• Equity at exit: $95,353

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17851

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $574

Break-even live

Break-even rent $723

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $619	-5% $597	+0% $574	+5% $551	+10% $529
Rent	-10% $460	-5% $517	+0% $574	+5% $631	+10% $689
Rate	-1.0pp $614	-0.5pp $594	base $574	+0.5pp $553	+1.0pp $532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
414 W 4th St Mount Carmel, PA	3.0	1.5	900	$1,450	$1.61	45d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   remarks 599-char remark
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   remarks 187-char remark
10. 2026-06-12
    listed $79,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,013 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$250/yr (+$21/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$1,066
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $5,987
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,437
• After-tax cash flow: $5,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Carmel, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,174

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Current HPI: 127.4102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+167.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $79,900 CSVBR
• 2022-05-31 Sold (MLS) $37,000 CSVBR
• 2022-04-25 Listed $29,900 CSVBR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $763 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.