1176 S Alpine Cir · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 965 sqft · Townhouse public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1978 3,311 sqft lot Est $178k · 12% over $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained townhome in the heart of Green Valley and part of the sought-after Green Valley Recreation community. Backing to open space with no rear neighbors, this home offers added privacy, peaceful desert surroundings, and stunning Arizona sunsets right from your backyard. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, seasonal retreat, or the perfect place to enjoy retirement, this home delivers comfort and low-maintenance living in an active yet relaxing setting. Enjoy access to recreation centers, pools, fitness facilities, golf, social activities, and endless opportunities to embrace the Arizona lifestyle at your own pace.

Key facts

• Open space
• No rear neighbors
• Fitness facilities

Tags

• OPEN SPACE
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• DESERT SURROUNDINGS
• ACCESS TO RECREATION CENTERS
• POOLS
• FITNESS FACILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has spa; Community features include golf, jogging/bike path, racquetball, shuffleboard, fitness center, rec center
• HOA & community: Part of Desert Meadows TH association; HOA covers common area and street maintenance; HOA fee $15 annually; HOA transfer fee $400; Association amenities include clubhouse, park, pool, recreation room, sauna, spa/hot tub, tennis, volleyball, pickleball

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 carport space; 1 covered space
• Security: Wrought iron security door; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Pre-wired telephone lines
• Home design: Townhouse; One level; Faces northeast
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Built-Up roof
• Exterior features: Covered slab patio; Patio; Shared masonry fence; Decorative gravel; Flower beds; Shrubs; Adjacent to alley; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Exhaust fan; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Prep sink; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings; Skylights; Roll-in shower; Smoke detector(s); Wrought iron security door
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in kitchen; Laundry closet; Storage; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-134/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,148 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 S Alpine Cir	0.15mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	0mo	$169,900	$176	89
1319 S Desert Meadows Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	981 (+2%)	6mo	$187,000	$191	87
1358 S Desert Meadows Cir	0.15mi	2/1.5	965 (0%)	10mo	$135,000	$140	83
1146 S Alpine Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,087 (+13%)	1mo	$196,500	$181	74
1194 S Alpine Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,047 (+8%)	11mo	$195,000	$186	74
1164 S Alpine Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,075 (+11%)	7mo	$185,000	$172	73
1126 S Alpine Cir	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,087 (+13%)	3mo	$200,000	$184	72
1190 S Alpine Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,075 (+11%)	9mo	$223,500	$208	71
1200 S Alpine Cir	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,075 (+11%)	9mo	$215,000	$200	70
1373 S Desert Meadows Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0	849 (-12%)	5mo	$180,000	$212	69
1377 S Desert Meadows Cir	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,075 (+11%)	11mo	$192,500	$179	66
1211 S Alpine Cir	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,087 (+13%)	10mo	$189,000	$174	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,953
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,768
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,521 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,536

Max offer price $197,020

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $45	+0% $-11	+5% $-68	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-71	+0% $-11	+5% $49	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $39	base $-11	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1310 S Desert Meadows Cir Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,500	$1.40	2d	1	0.12mi
1040 S Calle de la Temporada Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	24d	1	0.28mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.80mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.84mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	18d	1	0.84mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	18d	1	0.84mi
337 S Paseo Cerro Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	784	$1,300	$1.66	24d	1	0.89mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.95mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.95mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	15d	1	0.95mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	3d	1	0.97mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.97mi
348 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,065	$1.07	18d	1	1.04mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	3d	1	1.18mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	1.25mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	1.25mi
61 N Las Yucas Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	3d	1	1.29mi
230 N Calle Acuarela Unit 230 Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	965	$1,400	$1.45	4d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $199,000 Active
15. 2026-05-21
    historical
16. 2026-05-20
    price $199,000
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $204,000 Active
18. 2026-05-19
    historical
19. 2026-04-02
    price $204,000
20. 2026-03-05
    listed $205,000 Active
21. 2023-09-06
    soldstatus $180,000 Closed
22. 2023-09-06
    soldstatus $180,000
23. 2023-09-01
    status Pending
24. 2023-08-18
    historical Active Contingent
25. 2023-08-10
    listed $185,000 Active
26. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed
27. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus $165,000
28. 2021-12-21
    historical Active Contingent
29. 2021-12-01
    listed $171,000 Active
30. 2019-05-10
    soldstatus $102,000
31. 2009-12-18
    soldstatus $75,000
32. 2009-11-17
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed
33. 1980-07-01
    soldstatus $54,000
34. 1978-05-01
    soldstatus $35,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,313 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$453/yr (+$38/mo · 52.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$872
• After-tax cash flow: $738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+462.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $199,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $199,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-19 Listed $204,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $204,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-05 Listed $205,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-06 Sold (MLS) $180,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-01 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-18 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-10 Listed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-27 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-12-21 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-12-01 Listed $171,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-17 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MLSSAZ
• 1980-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1978-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $860 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.