1540 Forestburgh Rd · Eldred, NY 12737

$269,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1971 1.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home Sweet Home! Must see the inside of this lovely ranch home! Beautiful kitchen with granite counter tops and Stainless appliances, bright and airy Living Room room with wood floors, 3 nice sized bedrooms and 1.5 baths. Full walk out basement for storage or to finish for extra space, large deck and detached 2 car garage. All on over 1 beautiful acre of land with privacy. Can't beat it at this price point! Close to Port Jervis commuter trains and buses, hiking trails,cafes and shops. Near Bethel Woods for music venues and the new Catskills casino and Barryville Farmers Market. The location is perfect, call now to schedule to tour this lovely home! Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Fishing and boating
• Deck

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• DECK
• NEARBY LAKES
• FISHING AND BOATING
• SCENIC DELAWARE RIVER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electric service by Orange & Rockland; Septic tank; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Back yard; Front yard; Level lot; Near school; Not waterfront; Garage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Storage; Washer/dryer hookup; Basement with walk-out access; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in basement (in basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-259 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.2% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 242 students, 38% FRL); Eldred Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 230 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $269k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,804 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.13%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $130,011
• Equity at exit: $242,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $395,907
• Equity at exit: $522,608

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12737

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,971/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,346

Max offer price $223,178

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $269,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,971 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,258 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$3,971
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$7,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,888
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,817

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 132.02%
• Current HPI: 443.8248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+93.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $155,200 Public Records
• 2020-03-05 Sold (MLS) $155,200 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-18 Listed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-14 Listed $132,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-05 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2012-03-22 Listed — HGMLS
• 2012-03-22 Listed $128,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $132,500 Public Records
• 2008-12-19 Sold (MLS) $125,000 HGMLS
• 2008-10-22 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2008-04-15 Listed $139,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,971 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.