406 Post Way · Tubac, AZ 85646

$233,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 873 sqft · Condo · 37 Days on market

Built 2006 ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great 1 bedroom, 1 1/4 bath Embarcadero unit with large courtyard, gas BBQ and convenient location to the Village of Tubac, the historic Anza Trail, fine dining and close to the community pool.

Key facts

• Huge patio
• Plenty of light
• Historic anza trail

Tags

• HUGE PATIO
• FIREPLACE
• PLENTY OF LIGHT
• HISTORIC ANZA TRAIL
• EASY HIGHWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($497/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-331 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $233k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,039 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,711
• Equity at exit: $66,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $27,318
• Equity at exit: $78,041

Cash invested: $65,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85646

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $233,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,250
• Closing costs: $6,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $233,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $233,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $233,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $233,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $233,000 Active 185-char remark
16. 2018-06-05
    soldstatus $110,000 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Great 1 bedroom, 1 1/4 bath Embarcadero unit with large courtyard, gas BBQ and convenient location to the Village of Tubac, the historic Anza Trail, fine dining and close to the community pool.

17. 2018-05-07
    historical
18. 2018-02-09
    listed $119,900 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Great 1 bedroom, 1 1/4 bath Embarcadero unit with large courtyard, gas BBQ and convenient location to the Village of Tubac, the historic Anza Trail, fine dining and close to the community pool.

19. 2017-05-15
    listed $119,900
20. 2013-04-01
    soldstatus $82,000
21. 2013-04-01
    soldstatus $82,000
22. 2013-04-01
    soldstatus $82,000
23. 2012-11-19
    listed $83,900
24. 2012-11-15
    listed $83,900
25. 2012-11-15
    listed $83,900
26. 2010-03-31
    soldstatus $65,000
27. 2010-02-08
    listed $79,900
28. 2010-01-29
    historical
29. 2009-10-27
    listed $79,900
30. 2009-10-21
    historical
31. 2009-08-27
    listed $85,000
32. 2009-08-18
    historical
33. 2009-05-22
    listed $125,000
34. 2007-02-23
    soldstatus $293,840

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,468 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,538 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,468
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$6,778
• Taxable loss: −$3,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$824
• After-tax cash flow: $1,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tubac

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #10219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tubac, AZ
• City population: 1,280
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 298.5755
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $233,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-06-05 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-05-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2018-02-09 Listed $119,900 MLSSAZ
• 2017-05-15 Listed $119,900 MLSSAZ
• 2013-04-01 Sold (MLS) $82,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-04-01 Sold (MLS) $82,000 MLSSAZ
• 2013-04-01 Sold (MLS) $82,000 MLSSAZ
• 2012-11-19 Listed $83,900 MLSSAZ
• 2012-11-15 Listed $83,900 MLSSAZ
• 2012-11-15 Listed $83,900 MLSSAZ
• 2010-03-31 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-02-08 Listed $79,900 MLSSAZ
• 2010-01-29 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2009-10-27 Listed $79,900 MLSSAZ
• 2009-10-21 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2009-08-27 Listed $85,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-08-18 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2009-05-22 Listed $125,000 MLSSAZ
• 2007-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $293,840 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,468 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.