10319 Circle W · Kerrtown, PA 16335

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition $46/sqft · 30% below area Est $64k · 30% under ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY: Here is your opportunity to live in a lovely community, close to stores, restaurants and easy access to I79. This home is located in the Woodlands Mobile Home Park and boosts spacious 1 floor living with extra square footage due to 2 bump out sections. It has 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths as well as an open floor layout. As an added bonus there is the enclosed porch and 2 deck areas to relax and entertain. Storage shed and paved parking area.

Key facts

• Paved parking area
• 2 deck areas
• Easy access to i79

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO I79
• SPACIOUS 1 FLOOR LIVING
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• 2 DECK AREAS
• STORAGE SHED
• PAVED PARKING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum and metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Shed(s); Landscaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 11
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric heating with forced air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window coverings and drapes; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#593 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment F, housing F.
• Crawford Central SD (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #367 of 539 in PA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.98%
• DSCR: 3.36
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,394
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -30.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10319 Circle W	0.00mi	3/2.0	980 (0%)	0mo	$50,000	$51	100
10155 Circle West	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (0%)	2mo	$49,000	$50	90
10385 Center Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (0%)	8mo	$30,000	$31	86
10365 Center Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	952 (-3%)	6mo	$47,000	$49	83
10329 Circle W	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+9%)	7mo	$69,900	$66	79
10405 Circle E	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,124 (+15%)	16mo	$65,000	$58	54
10031 Perry Hwy	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+11%)	12mo	$175,000	$160	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $28,156
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $70,208
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16335

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10795 Timber Crest Dr Meadville, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	938	$1,425	$1.52	43d	8	0.52mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $45,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $45,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   listed $68,000 Active 459-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $5,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Repainting the exterior, updating the interior, and landscaping will significantly enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Major Painting exterior siding — Peeling paint
• Major Re-carpeting living areas — Worn carpet
• Major Updating kitchen cabinetry — Dated cabinetry
• Major Replacing outdated bathroom fixtures — Small, outdated fixtures
• Major Landscaping and curb appeal — Overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Re-carpeting living areas — Improves comfort and value
• Both Updating kitchen cabinetry — Modernizes space and value
• Both Replacing outdated bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Painting exterior siding · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Re-carpeting living areas · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
Updating kitchen cabinetry · Dated cabinetry	Major	$15,000–50,000
Replacing outdated bathroom fixtures · Small, outdated fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping and curb appeal · Overgrown vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Re-carpeting living areas — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Updating kitchen cabinetry — Modernizes space and value ↑
• Both Replacing outdated bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford Central SD
• NCES district ID: 4207080
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,837
• Composite: 33.21/100
• National rank: #5530
• State rank: #367 of 539 in PA

Livability — Kerrtown

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #593
• US rank: #5654

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Crawford County · 27,175 people
• Metro: Meadville, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,175
• Household income: $57,591
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 953.0

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.80%
• Current HPI: 272.4095
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Meadville, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-33.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $45,000 GEBOR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $68,000 GEBOR