42263 Shadow Creek Ave · Prairieville, LA 70737

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Built 1981 0.31 ac lot $110/sqft · 40% below area Est $243k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a .31 acre lot. This fixer upper has a ton of potential. Zone X, flood insurance not required, Being sold "As is." No showings without scheduled appointment with a licensed realtor. This is a short sale, which means it is subject to third party bank approval.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $819 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.3% in Prairieville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.21%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,714
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -40.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42218 Shadow Creek Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-3%)	11mo	$245,000	$192	81
42085 Shadow Creek Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-6%)	7mo	$227,000	$183	69
42031 Shadow Creek Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-2%)	13mo	$214,900	$166	65
14180 Martin Moran Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-0%)	10mo	$226,000	$172	58
14507 Brenda Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+14%)	20mo	$1,600	$1	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $29,272
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $95,127
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 567
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,630/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42481 Baystone Ave Prairieville, LA	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,950	$1.37	14d	1	1.43mi
41437 Cozy Way Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,300	$1.26	23d	1	1.46mi
13153 Ducks Landing St Gonzales, LA	4.0	3.0	1825	$2,750	$1.51	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor special! 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a . 31 acre lot. This fixer upper has a ton of potential. Zone X, flood insurance not required, Being sold “As is. ” No showings without scheduled appointment with a licensed realtor. This is a short sale, which means it is subject to third party bank approval.

17. 2026-05-05
    price $145,000 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor special! 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a . 31 acre lot. This fixer upper has a ton of potential. Zone X, flood insurance not required, Being sold “As is. ” No showings without scheduled appointment with a licensed realtor. This is a short sale, which means it is subject to third party bank approval.

18. 2026-05-05
    status Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor special! 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a . 31 acre lot. This fixer upper has a ton of potential. Zone X, flood insurance not required, Being sold “As is. ” No showings without scheduled appointment with a licensed realtor. This is a short sale, which means it is subject to third party bank approval.

19. 2026-05-05
    price $145,000 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor special! 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a . 31 acre lot. This fixer upper has a ton of potential. Zone X, flood insurance not required, Being sold “As is. ” No showings without scheduled appointment with a licensed realtor. This is a short sale, which means it is subject to third party bank approval.

20. 2026-04-07
    status Pending 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor special! 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a . 31 acre lot. This fixer upper has a ton of potential. Zone X, flood insurance not required, Being sold “As is. ” No showings without scheduled appointment with a licensed realtor. This is a short sale, which means it is subject to third party bank approval.

21. 2026-04-07
    status Pending 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor special! 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a . 31 acre lot. This fixer upper has a ton of potential. Zone X, flood insurance not required, Being sold “As is. ” No showings without scheduled appointment with a licensed realtor. This is a short sale, which means it is subject to third party bank approval.

22. 2026-02-27
    listed $165,000 Active 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor special! 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a . 31 acre lot. This fixer upper has a ton of potential. Zone X, flood insurance not required, Being sold “As is. ” No showings without scheduled appointment with a licensed realtor. This is a short sale, which means it is subject to third party bank approval.

23. 2026-02-27
    listed $165,000 Active 316-char remark

    Show marketing remark (316 chars)

    Investor special! 3 bedroom 2 bath home on a . 31 acre lot. This fixer upper has a ton of potential. Zone X, flood insurance not required, Being sold “As is. ” No showings without scheduled appointment with a licensed realtor. This is a short sale, which means it is subject to third party bank approval.

24. 2025-03-20
    listed $160,000 Active
25. 2025-03-20
    listed $160,000 Active
26. 2017-11-06
    soldstatus $165,000
27. 2017-10-30
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2017-10-02
    status Pending
29. 2017-09-17
    listed $165,000 Active
30. 2017-09-17
    listed $165,000
31. 2012-03-19
    soldstatus $138,500
32. 2012-03-15
    soldstatus
33. 2011-12-28
    listed $138,500
34. 2011-12-28
    listed $138,500
35. 2006-07-13
    soldstatus
36. 2004-07-30
    soldstatus
37. 2004-06-24
    listed $112,000
38. 2004-06-24
    listed $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,630
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $7,963
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,911
• After-tax cash flow: $7,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,278
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+29.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $145,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $145,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $165,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $165,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $160,000 GBRMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $160,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-30 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2017-10-02 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2017-09-17 Listed $165,000 GBRMLS
• 2017-09-17 Listed $165,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2012-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $138,500 Public Records
• 2012-03-15 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2011-12-28 Listed $138,500 GBRMLS
• 2011-12-28 Listed $138,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-30 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2004-06-24 Listed $112,000 GBRMLS
• 2004-06-24 Listed $112,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,630 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.