533 Las Hadas · Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$237,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2007 1.10 ac lot $112/sqft · 19% below area Est $294k · 19% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely updated and beautiful. Spacious 4 bedroom home with 2 living areas and 2 dining areas on over an acre. Island kitchen offers new stainless appliances. New light fixtures. New door and cabinet hardware. New faux wood flooring in both living areas, both dining areas, and kitchen. New carpet in the bedrooms. Fresh paint inside and out. Primary bath features a soaking tub, separate shower, and double vanity. New 2 inch blinds and window treatments are included. Shed. Gutters. Deck. Gated community. New AC and heat system 2026.

Key facts

• New carpet
• Island kitchen
• New light fixtures

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEW DOOR AND CABINET HARDWARE
• NEW FAUX WOOD FLOORING
• NEW CARPET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $238k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,446 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,765
• List price: $237,500
• Delta: -19.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
678 Fawn River Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,232 (+5%)	18mo	$290,000	$130	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-27,071
• Equity at exit: $35,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-8,834
• Equity at exit: $20,535

Cash invested: $66,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,245
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,982/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,038

Max offer price $237,500

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,375
• Closing costs: $7,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $237,500 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,500 Active Option 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $237,500 Active Option 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $237,500 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $237,500 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $237,500 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $237,500 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-05-03
   price $237,500 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Completely updated and beautiful. Spacious 4 bedroom home with 2 living areas and 2 dining areas on over an acre. Island kitchen offers new stainless appliances. New light fixtures. New door and cabinet hardware. New faux wood flooring in both living areas, both dining areas, and kitchen. New carpet in the bedrooms. Fresh paint inside and out. Primary bath features a soaking tub, separate shower, and double vanity. New 2 inch blinds and window treatments are included. Shed. Gutters. Deck. Gated community. New AC and heat system 2026.

9. 2026-04-12
   listed $247,500 New 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   Completely updated and beautiful. Spacious 4 bedroom home with 2 living areas and 2 dining areas on over an acre. Island kitchen offers new stainless appliances. New light fixtures. New door and cabinet hardware. New faux wood flooring in both living areas, both dining areas, and kitchen. New carpet in the bedrooms. Fresh paint inside and out. Primary bath features a soaking tub, separate shower, and double vanity. New 2 inch blinds and window treatments are included. Shed. Gutters. Deck. Gated community. New AC and heat system 2026.

10. 2025-10-24
    soldstatus $92,600
11. 2004-12-08
    soldstatus
12. 2003-06-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,982 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,346 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,364/yr (+$114/mo · 45.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,304
• − Property taxes: −$2,982
• − Insurance: −$1,188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$6,909
• Taxable loss: −$1,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$423
• After-tax cash flow: $2,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+156.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $237,500 LERA
• 2026-04-12 Listed $247,500 LERA
• 2025-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $92,600 Public Records
• 2004-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,982 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.