10125 SE 158th Ln · The Villages, FL 34491

$280,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,700 sqft lot $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. This all concrete block constructed, one-story home optimizes living space, featuring an open-concept kitchen overlooking the great room and outdoor patio. The well-appointed kitchen comes with all stainless-steel appliances, including a built-in dishwasher, range, and microwave. Bedroom 1 is located at the rear of the home for privacy and features an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet near the bathroom. Two additional bedrooms at the front of the home are separated by the second bathroom. The third bedroom is located across the hallway near the laundry room. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illu

Key facts

• 8,700 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,498 (builder source); Lot about 0.2 acres (approximately 808 sq meters)
• Financial info: Total annual fees $528; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Boyd Property Management; Monthly association fee of $44 (required); Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; Under construction (projected completion August 13, 2026); Faces west; Planned unit development (PUD)
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by DR Horton INC (model: Freeport II); Builder license CRC057592; Permit number 25-12-01583; Built/Projected in 2026
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Irrigation equipment installed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Home comes with a builder-provided warranty
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. The $280,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $283,836.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-952/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harbour View Elementary School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 713 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,817 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,836
• List price: $280,990
• Delta: -1.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15883 SE 98th Ter	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-4%)	7mo	$245,000	$171	72
15828 SE 98th Ter	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,349 (-10%)	12mo	$287,000	$213	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,985
• Equity at exit: $42,321

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-50,647
• Equity at exit: $24,541

Cash invested: $79,474 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 713
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,488
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$355 /mo · $4,258/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,539

Max offer price $272,351

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $19	+0% $-79	+5% $-177	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-176	+0% $-79	+5% $17	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $-7	base $-79	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,959
• Closing costs: $8,515
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15886 SE 101st Cir Summerfield, FL	5.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	15d	1	0.05mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	0.23mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	15d	1	0.42mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	15d	1	0.74mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	23d	1	0.99mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	23d	1	1.14mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	23d	1	1.35mi
8721 SE 157th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,650	$1.33	23d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 953-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   price $280,990 884-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   price $280,990 953-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   price $283,070 884-char remark
5. 2026-04-27
   price $283,070 953-char remark
6. 2026-04-23
   listed $281,070 Active 884-char remark
7. 2026-04-22
   listed $281,070 Active 953-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,899
• − Property taxes: −$4,258
• − Insurance: −$1,419
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$8,257
• Taxable loss: −$5,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,388
• After-tax cash flow: $436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features a modern design with stainless steel appliances and fresh paint, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $280,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $283,070 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $281,070 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid