4448 Stumberg Ln · Baton Rouge, LA 70816

$120,500

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1984 1,742 sqft lot $108/sqft · 10% below area Est $131k · 8% under $226/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in-ready corner unit where privacy meets premium living. Bathed in natural light, the open-concept layout flows effortlessly from the gourmet-ready dining area to a spacious living room anchored by a charming wood-burning fireplace perfect for cozy evenings. Each oversized bedroom serves as a private retreat, complete with its own dedicated full bath. Perfect for sophisticated roommate living or a high-end guest experience. Forget the clutter; the fully decked and insulated attic provides massive storage space while keeping your energy bills lean. Tucked away yet perfectly positioned off Coursey Blvd. Enjoy lightning-fast commutes via I-10 and I-12, with the city's premier dining and shopping scenes just minutes from your front door. This property is also available for rent.

Key facts

• Fully decked attic
• $226 HOA
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• GOURMET-READY DINING AREA
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• FULLY DECKED ATTIC
• MASSIVE STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.3% in Baton Rouge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#24 in LA, #4,535 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, employment D-.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 250 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $833 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 10611% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,885 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,480
• List price: $120,500
• Delta: -8.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13318 Country Manor Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+15%)	13mo	$226,900	$177	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-16,526
• Equity at exit: $17,967

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-20,337
• Equity at exit: $10,419

Cash invested: $33,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70816

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,414 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$632
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,226/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$226
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $120,500

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $141	+0% $107	+5% $73	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $-5	-5% $51	+0% $107	+5% $163	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $137	base $107	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,125
• Closing costs: $3,615
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4360 Stumberg Ln Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.08mi
4126 Stumberg Ln Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,150	$1.45	15d	1	0.13mi
4138 Stumberg Ln Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,925	$1.30	44d	1	0.13mi
12757 Coursey Blvd Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,049	$1.21	15d	19	0.19mi
12138 Coursey Blvd #1 Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,550	$1.35	24d	1	0.55mi
12784 Brogdon Ln Unit 12784-H Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.57mi
13675 Coursey Blvd Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$1,130	$1.19	44d	23	0.58mi
5159 S Oaks Dr Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.62mi
11888 Longridge Ave Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	869	$797	$0.92	15d	5	1.07mi
11850 Wentling Ave Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	870	$1,278	$1.47	15d	20	1.09mi
6212 Stumberg Ln Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,500	$1.05	44d	1	1.22mi
11550 Southfork Ave Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,300	$1.27	24d	2	1.26mi
15444 Summerwood Ave Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.0	1323	$1,650	$1.25	24d	1	1.37mi
4630 Southpark Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,400	$1.03	24d	1	1.40mi
11555 Southfork Ave Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,370	$1.66	15d	22	1.42mi
14355 S Harrells Ferry Rd Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,025	$0.98	15d	1	1.43mi
4747 Southpark Dr Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	24d	1	1.44mi
4747 Southpark Dr Baton Rouge, LA	2.0	2.0	840	$1,450	$1.73	44d	1	1.44mi
15580 George Oneal Rd Baton Rouge, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$1,245	$1.17	15d	8	1.44mi
11976 Baylor Dr Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	1.0	943	$1,350	$1.43	24d	1	1.46mi
4844 Mokki Ln Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,690	$1.17	44d	1	1.47mi
4804 Mokki Ln Baton Rouge, LA	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,875	$1.30	22d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $226 · $2,712/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,500 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,500 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,500 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,500 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,500 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,500 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,500 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,500 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,500 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,500 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,500 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,500 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,500 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,500 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,500 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    historical $1,125
17. 2026-05-16
    listed $1,125
18. 2026-05-13
    price $1,125
19. 2026-05-11
    price $122,500 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Move-in-ready corner unit where privacy meets premium living. Bathed in natural light, the open-concept layout flows effortlessly from the gourmet-ready dining area to a spacious living room anchored by a charming wood-burning fireplace perfect for cozy evenings. Each oversized bedroom serves as a private retreat, complete with its own dedicated full bath. Perfect for sophisticated roommate living or a high-end guest experience. Forget the clutter; the fully decked and insulated attic provides massive storage space while keeping your energy bills lean. Tucked away yet perfectly positioned off Coursey Blvd. Enjoy lightning-fast commutes via I-10 and I-12, with the city's premier dining and shopping scenes just minutes from your front door. This property is also available for rent.

20. 2026-05-11
    price $122,500 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Move-in-ready corner unit where privacy meets premium living. Bathed in natural light, the open-concept layout flows effortlessly from the gourmet-ready dining area to a spacious living room anchored by a charming wood-burning fireplace perfect for cozy evenings. Each oversized bedroom serves as a private retreat, complete with its own dedicated full bath. Perfect for sophisticated roommate living or a high-end guest experience. Forget the clutter; the fully decked and insulated attic provides massive storage space while keeping your energy bills lean. Tucked away yet perfectly positioned off Coursey Blvd. Enjoy lightning-fast commutes via I-10 and I-12, with the city's premier dining and shopping scenes just minutes from your front door. This property is also available for rent.

21. 2026-04-21
    listed $125,000 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Move-in-ready corner unit where privacy meets premium living. Bathed in natural light, the open-concept layout flows effortlessly from the gourmet-ready dining area to a spacious living room anchored by a charming wood-burning fireplace perfect for cozy evenings. Each oversized bedroom serves as a private retreat, complete with its own dedicated full bath. Perfect for sophisticated roommate living or a high-end guest experience. Forget the clutter; the fully decked and insulated attic provides massive storage space while keeping your energy bills lean. Tucked away yet perfectly positioned off Coursey Blvd. Enjoy lightning-fast commutes via I-10 and I-12, with the city's premier dining and shopping scenes just minutes from your front door. This property is also available for rent.

22. 2026-04-21
    listed $125,000 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Move-in-ready corner unit where privacy meets premium living. Bathed in natural light, the open-concept layout flows effortlessly from the gourmet-ready dining area to a spacious living room anchored by a charming wood-burning fireplace perfect for cozy evenings. Each oversized bedroom serves as a private retreat, complete with its own dedicated full bath. Perfect for sophisticated roommate living or a high-end guest experience. Forget the clutter; the fully decked and insulated attic provides massive storage space while keeping your energy bills lean. Tucked away yet perfectly positioned off Coursey Blvd. Enjoy lightning-fast commutes via I-10 and I-12, with the city's premier dining and shopping scenes just minutes from your front door. This property is also available for rent.

23. 2026-04-16
    listed $1,150
24. 2026-03-31
    historical $1,150
25. 2026-02-04
    listed $1,150
26. 2026-02-04
    historical $1,150
27. 2026-01-31
    listed $1,150
28. 2026-01-31
    historical $1,150
29. 2026-01-28
    listed $1,150
30. 2025-01-31
    historical $1,250
31. 2025-01-16
    price $1,250
32. 2024-12-18
    listed $1,300
33. 2018-08-01
    historical
34. 2018-06-22
    price $104,500
35. 2018-06-03
    listed $106,500 Active
36. 2018-06-03
    listed $104,500
37. 2005-08-01
    listed $73,000
38. 2005-08-01
    listed $73,000
39. 2005-08-01
    listed $725
40. 2002-10-28
    listed $73,000
41. 2002-10-28
    listed $73,000
42. 2000-06-13
    listed $72,900
43. 1998-04-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,226 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,226 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,750
• − Property taxes: −$1,226
• − Insurance: −$602
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − HOA: −$2,712
• − Depreciation: −$3,505
• Taxable loss: −$543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$130
• After-tax cash flow: $1,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Baton Rouge Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $46,263
• Composite: 24.14/100
• National rank: #7745
• State rank: #47 of 98 in LA

Livability — Baton Rouge

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #4535

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baton Rouge, LA
• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 399,686 people
• City population: 351,868
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 45,718
• Household income: $67,353
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2162.0

Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.21%
• Current HPI: 157.3823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-98.5% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Rental Removed $1,125 GBRMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed for Rent $1,125 GBRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $1,125 RAAMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $122,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $122,500 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $125,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $125,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $1,150 RAAMLS
• 2026-03-31 Rental Removed $1,150 RAAMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed for Rent $1,150 RAAMLS
• 2026-02-04 Rental Removed $1,150 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed for Rent $1,150 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-31 Rental Removed $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-28 Listed for Rent $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-31 Rental Removed $1,250 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $1,250 APPFOLIO
• 2024-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,300 APPFOLIO
• 2018-08-01 Delisted — GBRMLS
• 2018-06-22 Price Changed $104,500 GBRMLS
• 2018-06-03 Listed $104,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2018-06-03 Listed $106,500 GBRMLS
• 2005-08-01 Listed $725 GBRMLS
• 2005-08-01 Listed $73,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-08-01 Listed $73,000 GBRMLS
• 2002-10-28 Listed $73,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2002-10-28 Listed $73,000 GBRMLS
• 2000-06-13 Listed $72,900 AcadianaMLS
• 1998-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,226 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.