8910 Pine Shores Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$299,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,607 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1977 10,201 sqft lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $306k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated 2 story home in Atascocita Shores featuring 4 bedrooms and a functional, well designed layout. Upon entry, you’ll find a formal living room and dining room to the left. The primary bedroom is located downstairs and includes new flooring and a renovated ensuite bath with updated granite countertops. The kitchen has been refreshed with new cabinets, countertops, and a new stove, and opens to a comfortable family room with a gas log fireplace. A breakfast area overlooks the backyard, providing a bright, inviting space for everyday dining. Upstairs offers three additional bedrooms, all updated with recent vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint. One of the secondary bedrooms is generously sized and can easily serve as a game room or flex space. Major updates include a new roof (December 2024), A/C, furnace, and condensers replaced in 2019, and a new breaker box with whole home surge protector installed in the garage.

Key facts

• New stove
• New cabinets
• Gas log fireplace

Tags

• UPDATED GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW STOVE
• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST AREA
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $299k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,977
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -2.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8911 Pine Shores Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,624 (+1%)	6mo	$299,000	$114	92
8931 Pine Shores Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,612 (+0%)	10mo	$349,900	$134	87
8518 Rebawood Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,832 (+9%)	4mo	$300,000	$106	56
8503 Pines Place Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,826 (+8%)	2mo	$139,000	$49	56
20015 Bunker Bend Ct	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,452 (-6%)	3mo	$299,900	$122	55
20118 Magnolia Bend Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,456 (-6%)	12mo	$245,000	$100	51
19706 Fairway Island Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,580 (-1%)	15mo	$369,900	$143	51
19311 Boulder Bay Ln	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,262 (-13%)	3mo	$295,000	$130	49
19210 Hikers Trail Dr	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,716 (+4%)	9mo	$299,900	$110	46
8507 Rebawood Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,791 (+7%)	14mo	$389,900	$140	46
8119 Pinewood Crest Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,221 (-15%)	13mo	$290,000	$131	39
8615 Mile Run Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,220 (-15%)	5mo	$300,000	$135	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-703
• Equity at exit: $72,833

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $27,684
• Equity at exit: $77,043

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,559/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19603 Fairway Island Dr Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	3329	$6,500	$1.95	24d	1	0.76mi
19119 Sprintwood Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$2,425	$0.98	22d	1	0.79mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	43d	1	1.15mi
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	1d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $299,000 Active 949-char remark

    Show marketing remark (949 chars)

    Beautifully updated 2 story home in Atascocita Shores featuring 4 bedrooms and a functional, well designed layout. Upon entry, you’ll find a formal living room and dining room to the left. The primary bedroom is located downstairs and includes new flooring and a renovated ensuite bath with updated granite countertops. The kitchen has been refreshed with new cabinets, countertops, and a new stove, and opens to a comfortable family room with a gas log fireplace. A breakfast area overlooks the backyard, providing a bright, inviting space for everyday dining. Upstairs offers three additional bedrooms, all updated with recent vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint. One of the secondary bedrooms is generously sized and can easily serve as a game room or flex space. Major updates include a new roof (December 2024), A/C, furnace, and condensers replaced in 2019, and a new breaker box with whole home surge protector installed in the garage.

16. 2013-12-12
    soldstatus
17. 2013-11-27
    soldstatus Sold 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Wonderful two story home just a few steps away from Lake Houston. Huge shady back yard with patio and Hot tub just made to wash away all the stress from your work week. Warm and inviting paint throughout. Spacious living areas! Wonderful master suite! A true must see! See it! Love it! Move Right in!

18. 2013-11-04
    status Pending, Continue to Show 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Wonderful two story home just a few steps away from Lake Houston. Huge shady back yard with patio and Hot tub just made to wash away all the stress from your work week. Warm and inviting paint throughout. Spacious living areas! Wonderful master suite! A true must see! See it! Love it! Move Right in!

19. 2013-10-21
    status Option Pending 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Wonderful two story home just a few steps away from Lake Houston. Huge shady back yard with patio and Hot tub just made to wash away all the stress from your work week. Warm and inviting paint throughout. Spacious living areas! Wonderful master suite! A true must see! See it! Love it! Move Right in!

20. 2013-10-03
    price $161,400 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Wonderful two story home just a few steps away from Lake Houston. Huge shady back yard with patio and Hot tub just made to wash away all the stress from your work week. Warm and inviting paint throughout. Spacious living areas! Wonderful master suite! A true must see! See it! Love it! Move Right in!

21. 2013-09-13
    price $162,900 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Wonderful two story home just a few steps away from Lake Houston. Huge shady back yard with patio and Hot tub just made to wash away all the stress from your work week. Warm and inviting paint throughout. Spacious living areas! Wonderful master suite! A true must see! See it! Love it! Move Right in!

22. 2013-08-21
    listed $164,900 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Wonderful two story home just a few steps away from Lake Houston. Huge shady back yard with patio and Hot tub just made to wash away all the stress from your work week. Warm and inviting paint throughout. Spacious living areas! Wonderful master suite! A true must see! See it! Love it! Move Right in!

23. 2013-08-20
    historical
24. 2013-06-28
    price $169,000
25. 2013-05-08
    price $189,000
26. 2013-04-17
    price $199,000
27. 2013-04-04
    listed $209,000 Active
28. 2007-05-11
    soldstatus
29. 2006-11-14
    historical
30. 2006-02-22
    listed $152,500
31. 2005-12-31
    historical
32. 2005-08-31
    listed $159,000
33. 2005-08-30
    historical
34. 2005-03-19
    listed $169,900
35. 1993-12-21
    soldstatus $98,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,559 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$913/yr (+$76/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,559
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,163
• − Management: −$3,163
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $1,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$261
• After-tax cash flow: $5,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+205.1% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2013-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-11-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-10-03 Price Changed $161,400 HARMLS
• 2013-09-13 Price Changed $162,900 HARMLS
• 2013-08-21 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2013-08-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-06-28 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2013-05-08 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2013-04-17 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2013-04-04 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2007-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-02-22 Listed $152,500 HARMLS
• 2005-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-08-31 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2005-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-03-19 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 1993-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,559 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.