4402 Spence Dr · Midland, TX 79707

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,437 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1981 7,797 sqft lot $209/sqft · 6% above area Est $312k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cure 3 Bedroom 2 bath home on the north side, sunroom to enjoy, large back yard. Greathouse school area

Key facts

• Sunroom
• Large back yard
• 7,797 sq ft lot

Tags

• SUNROOM
• LARGE BACK YARD
• GREATHOUSE SCHOOL AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,823 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.21%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,058
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -3.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,506
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,748
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79707

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,203/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,593

Max offer price $260,258

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5203 Canadian Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1677	$2,600	$1.55	13d	1	0.11mi
5200 Briarwood Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,124	$2.38	13d	24	0.24mi
5110 San Antonio Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,600	$1.72	21d	1	0.24mi
5103 San Antonio Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$2,900	$1.67	21d	1	0.27mi
5117 San Antonio Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,495	$1.56	44d	1	0.28mi
5207 San Antonio Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,200	$1.39	13d	1	0.28mi
5244 West Loop 250 N Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,749	$2.21	13d	34	0.40mi
4805 Briarwood Ave Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,285	$2.22	13d	18	0.44mi
4415 Northcrest Dr Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,594	$1.98	13d	17	0.56mi
3705 Dentcrest Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	13d	1	0.61mi
5216 Tremont Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,411	$1.83	13d	19	0.67mi
3309 Edgemont Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,995	$1.87	21d	1	0.88mi
3306 Oakmont Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,500	$1.40	21d	1	0.88mi
6000 Briarwood Ave Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,856	$2.87	13d	28	0.95mi
3226 Whittle Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$4,250	$2.30	21d	1	0.95mi
4419 Fairgate Dr Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$1,800	$1.11	21d	1	0.98mi
4301 Raleigh Ct Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	766	$1,490	$1.94	13d	18	1.00mi
3417 N Midland Dr Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,624	$1.83	13d	13	1.01mi
4715 W Wadley Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	872	$1,514	$1.74	13d	10	1.02mi
5001 W Wadley Ave Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$2,720	$2.48	13d	17	1.03mi
4800 Dentcrest Dr Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,999	$1.74	43d	1	1.03mi
3245 Preston Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,000	$1.24	43d	1	1.05mi
4704 Dentcrest Dr Unit A Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	1.05mi
4713 Dentcrest Dr Unit A Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,250	$2.32	21d	1	1.06mi
3600 N Midland Dr Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	13d	9	1.10mi
3214 Mark Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,550	$1.39	43d	1	1.10mi
3208 Elma Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$2,700	$1.64	43d	1	1.10mi
2913 Sunburst Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$2,400	$1.45	21d	1	1.14mi
3002 Phillip Pl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,400	$1.52	43d	1	1.21mi
5108 Rainbow Rd Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$3,250	$2.31	43d	1	1.27mi
4700 Boulder Dr Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,500	$1.82	21d	2	1.38mi
5501 Sherwood Dr Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1050	$3,259	$3.10	13d	24	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 103-char remark

   Show marketing remark (103 chars)

   Cure 3 Bedroom 2 bath home on the north side, sunroom to enjoy, large back yard. Greathouse school area

2. 2026-02-27
   listed $300,000 Active 103-char remark

   Show marketing remark (103 chars)

   Cure 3 Bedroom 2 bath home on the north side, sunroom to enjoy, large back yard. Greathouse school area

3. 2025-01-22
   historical $2,000
4. 2024-12-04
   price $2,000
5. 2024-10-24
   listed $2,100
6. 2011-11-23
   soldstatus
7. 2009-04-01
   soldstatus
8. 2004-03-03
   soldstatus
9. 2004-03-01
   soldstatus 191-char remark

   Show marketing remark (191 chars)

   HOME IS SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND WITH ALL FAULTS, HOME IS VACANT, 3 BRS, 2 BA, DETRASH COMPLETE, SPI BOX, OPEN KITCHEN, FIREPLACE, 2 CAR GARAGE. CORP ADDENDA IS IN KITCHEN, EARNEST MONEY IS 3%

10. 2003-11-20
    listed $67,900 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    HOME IS SOLD AS IS WHERE IS AND WITH ALL FAULTS, HOME IS VACANT, 3 BRS, 2 BA, DETRASH COMPLETE, SPI BOX, OPEN KITCHEN, FIREPLACE, 2 CAR GARAGE. CORP ADDENDA IS IN KITCHEN, EARNEST MONEY IS 3%

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,203 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,287/yr (+$107/mo · 30.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,203
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$7,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,912
• After-tax cash flow: $-787/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,010
• Household income: $99,886
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1919.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.65%
• Current HPI: 198.7489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+341.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-02-27 Listed $300,000 PBBOR
• 2025-01-22 Rental Removed $2,000 PBBOR
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $2,000 PBBOR
• 2024-10-24 Listed for Rent $2,100 PBBOR
• 2011-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-01 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2003-11-20 Listed $67,900 ODMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,203 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.