5867 Tadpole Dr · Elgin, OK 73538

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,034 sqft · Land public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2025 0.50 ac lot ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gorgeous new construction in Legacy Creek Addition, Elgin, OK! This thoughtfully designed home offers approximately 2,100 sq ft with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 3-car garage on a ½-acre lot with backyard wooden privacy fencing. The open-concept layout is filled with natural light and enhanced by a fresh, neutral color palette. Striking black fixtures add modern sophistication, while layered textures—such as the pebble-tile fireplace surround and penny mosaic detailing throughout—bring warmth, depth, and visual interest to the space. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The private

Key facts

• Black fixtures
• New construction
• Natural light

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BLACK FIXTURES
• PEBBLE-TILE FIREPLACE SURROUND
• PENNY MOSAIC DETAILING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3 covered spaces; 3-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; New construction
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Wood fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Fireplace heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); Pantry; Gas fireplace; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas water heater

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-799 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (37.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (44.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (44.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 5.1% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#17 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Elgin (rural): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #38 of 270 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elgin Es (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 945 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Ms (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #49 of 345 statewide, top 15%, 791 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Hs (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #42 of 447 statewide, top 10%, 771 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,346 (44.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.14%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $153,265
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $491,260
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73538

• Home prices YoY: 22.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,870/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-799

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,095

Max offer price $233,790

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-587	-5% $-693	+0% $-799	+5% $-905	+10% $-1,012
Rent	-10% $-964	-5% $-882	+0% $-799	+5% $-717	+10% $-635
Rate	-1.0pp $-611	-0.5pp $-704	base $-799	+0.5pp $-897	+1.0pp $-995

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1201 Kensington Ln Elgin, OK	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1414	$1,700	$1.20	26d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   price $375,000
3. 2026-05-13
   listed $379,000 Active
4. 2025-06-17
   listed $379,000 Active
5. 2025-06-14
   listed $379,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,870 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,870 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$3,870
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,000
• − Management: −$2,000
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$16,659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,998
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin
• NCES district ID: 4010710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,900
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6432
• State rank: #38 of 270 in OK

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #5411

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 7,128
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 7,128
• Household income: $91,324
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 45.70%
• Current HPI: 245.4249
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $375,000 LBRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $379,000 LBRMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $379,000 LBRMLS
• 2025-06-14 Listed $379,000 LBRMLS

Property tax history

+1146.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,870 · +193400.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.