21100 State St #181 · San Jacinto, CA 92583

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Manufactured public records · 124 Days on market

Built 2002 $63/sqft · 27% above area Est $75k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

21100 State St, Unit #181. Welcome to this serene home located in a highly desirable 55+ park surrounded by a tranquil lake, mature trees, and stunning mountain views. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool. As you approach the home, you’re greeted by a spacious front sitting area—perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Step inside to a welcoming formal living room that flows into a large family room featuring a cozy fireplace—ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. The spacious kitchen offers abundant counter space, ample cabinetry, and a large island, making it perfect for cooking and entertaining. The generously sized primary bedroom easily accommodates a king-size bed, while the second bedroom comfortably fits a queen-size bed. Both full bathrooms provide convenience and functionality. There is a laundry room that leads to the covered carport. Additional features include a rear storage area and a covered patio/carport with enough space for two vehicles and a small RV. Enjoy comfort, space, and a peaceful lifestyle all in one beautiful home.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2002
• Listed 124 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Jacinto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $95k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.94%
• DSCR: 3.40
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,000
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 26.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21100 State St #217	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	0mo	$75,000	$52	92
21100 State St #7	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+2%)	1mo	$99,888	$65	91
21100 State St #68	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	2mo	$35,000	$24	91
21100 State St #373	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,469 (-3%)	5mo	$93,000	$63	86
21100 State St #310	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,424 (-6%)	12mo	$109,000	$77	81
21100 State St #353	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-4%)	10mo	$105,150	$73	79
21100 State St #211	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	16mo	$90,000	$63	79
21100 State St N #352	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	18mo	$59,000	$41	78
21100 State St Unit 217A	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	7mo	$65,000	$48	76
21100 State St #211	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,440 (-4%)	16mo	$90,000	$63	75
21100 State St #66	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	6mo	$79,900	$57	72
21100 State St #16	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-11%)	17mo	$70,000	$52	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $59,867
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $146,561
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92583

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $533/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $1,196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,249	-5% $1,223	+0% $1,196	+5% $1,169	+10% $1,142
Rent	-10% $1,018	-5% $1,107	+0% $1,196	+5% $1,285	+10% $1,373
Rate	-1.0pp $1,244	-0.5pp $1,220	base $1,196	+0.5pp $1,171	+1.0pp $1,146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1344 Sierra Seneca Dr San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	6d	1	0.60mi
643 Laxford Rd San Jacinto, CA	3.0	2.5	1967	$2,600	$1.32	16d	1	1.21mi
165 Tiger Ln San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1339	$2,150	$1.61	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-02-17
    listed $95,000 Active 1146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1146 chars)

    21100 State St, Unit #181. Welcome to this serene home located in a highly desirable 55+ park surrounded by a tranquil lake, mature trees, and stunning mountain views. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool. As you approach the home, you’re greeted by a spacious front sitting area—perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Step inside to a welcoming formal living room that flows into a large family room featuring a cozy fireplace—ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. The spacious kitchen offers abundant counter space, ample cabinetry, and a large island, making it perfect for cooking and entertaining. The generously sized primary bedroom easily accommodates a king-size bed, while the second bedroom comfortably fits a queen-size bed. Both full bathrooms provide convenience and functionality. There is a laundry room that leads to the covered carport. Additional features include a rear storage area and a covered patio/carport with enough space for two vehicles and a small RV. Enjoy comfort, space, and a peaceful lifestyle all in one beautiful home.

17. 2026-02-04
    historical $95,000 1146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1146 chars)

    21100 State St, Unit #181. Welcome to this serene home located in a highly desirable 55+ park surrounded by a tranquil lake, mature trees, and stunning mountain views. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling community pool. As you approach the home, you’re greeted by a spacious front sitting area—perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Step inside to a welcoming formal living room that flows into a large family room featuring a cozy fireplace—ideal for gatherings or quiet evenings at home. The spacious kitchen offers abundant counter space, ample cabinetry, and a large island, making it perfect for cooking and entertaining. The generously sized primary bedroom easily accommodates a king-size bed, while the second bedroom comfortably fits a queen-size bed. Both full bathrooms provide convenience and functionality. There is a laundry room that leads to the covered carport. Additional features include a rear storage area and a covered patio/carport with enough space for two vehicles and a small RV. Enjoy comfort, space, and a peaceful lifestyle all in one beautiful home.

18. 2026-02-02
    historical
19. 2026-01-19
    price $95,000
20. 2025-12-12
    listed $99,000 Active
21. 2018-06-22
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed Sale
22. 2018-05-12
    status Pending Sale
23. 2018-05-05
    status Active
24. 2018-04-12
    status Pending Sale
25. 2018-03-04
    status Active
26. 2018-01-14
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2017-12-12
    listed $49,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $533 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $722 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 35.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$533
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $13,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,262
• After-tax cash flow: $11,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Jacinto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634440
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #8478
• State rank: #421 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jacinto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #15889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 33,778
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,778
• Household income: $68,351
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 26% Two or more races 23% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 40% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.15%
• Current HPI: 407.8584
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+90.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-04 Coming Soon $95,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2018-06-22 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CRMLS
• 2018-05-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-05-05 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2018-04-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-03-04 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2018-01-14 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2017-12-12 Listed $49,995 CRMLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $533 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.