2501 Hillmont Rd · Odessa, TX 79764

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured · 183 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cutie is waiting for you to call home. 3 bedroom 2 baths!!! very well taken care of!!! call today for an appt

Key facts

• Built 2019
• Listed 182 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.16%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $37,102
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $99,983
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79764

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $824

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2025-12-17
    listed $95,000 Active 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    This cutie is waiting for you to call home. 3 bedroom 2 baths!!! very well taken care of!!! call today for an appt

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $8,903
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,137
• After-tax cash flow: $7,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home is move-in ready with good condition throughout. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Fresh flooring can improve the look and feel of the home, attracting more buyers/renters.
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both New window treatments — New window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Fresh flooring can improve the look and feel of the home, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Modern light fixtures can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both New window treatments — New window treatments can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 131,169
• Population (ZIP): 26,805

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 37% Two or more races 17% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.67%
• Current HPI: 238.7065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Listed $95,000 PBBOR