5131 Jefferson Ave · Moss Point, MS 39563

$169,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1968 10,018 sqft lot Est $133k · 27% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Remodeled home. Four bedrooms, fenced yard. New roof. Central location. New flooring, paint, cabinets, countertops, appliances, plumbing and electrical fixtures. Move in ready. Not in FLOOD ZONE.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Central location
• New flooring

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• NEW ROOF
• CENTRAL LOCATION
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Brick veneer construction; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Construction: Brick veneer; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof; One-story single-family residence
• Exterior features: Backyard fencing; City lot with few trees; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (1 full)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Move-in ready condition; Double-pane windows; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-609/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#77 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Moss Point Separate School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #94 of 130 in MS (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Moss Point Kreole Primary School (394 students, 100% FRL); Magnolia Middle School (math 19% / reading 23%, grade F, #112 of 179 statewide, top 64%, 381 students, 100% FRL); Moss Point High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #101 of 197 statewide, top 54%, 455 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 83% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,047 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,280
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3609 Doris Cir	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,200 (+7%)	2mo	$143,000	$119	74
3425 Inez Cir	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,137 (+2%)	21mo	$154,900	$136	74
5659 S Rose Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,128 (+1%)	3mo	$144,900	$128	61
3520 Fairwood Cir	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (+3%)	9mo	$150,000	$130	58
4919 Belfair Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,286 (+15%)	11mo	$149,900	$117	46
3506 Second St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+12%)	17mo	$110,000	$88	45
3002 Pecan Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,230 (+10%)	22mo	$149,900	$122	39
4830 Saphire Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,207 (+8%)	17mo	$54,900	$45	34
4937 Frederick St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-7%)	19mo	$20,000	$19	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $32,027
• Equity at exit: $92,200

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $101,420
• Equity at exit: $155,850

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39563

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $922/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $160,932

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-3	+0% $-51	+5% $-99	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-150	-5% $-100	+0% $-51	+5% $-1	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-8	base $-51	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5612 Rose Dr Moss Point, MS	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,150	$0.85	16d	1	0.65mi
4800 Long Ave Pascagoula, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,430	$1.58	16d	27	0.93mi
4501 Briggs St Moss Point, MS	3.0	1.0	1195	$975	$0.82	24d	1	1.23mi
4807 King James Dr Pascagoula, MS	3.0	1.5	1144	$1,350	$1.18	16d	1	1.25mi
3801 Melton Dr Pascagoula, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,430	$1.73	16d	43	1.28mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $169,900
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $179,900 Active
4. 2025-12-04
   soldstatus
5. 2024-09-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 45.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$922
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$870
• After-tax cash flow: $261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moss Point Separate School District
• NCES district ID: 2803000
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,041
• Composite: 16.34/100
• National rank: #9205
• State rank: #94 of 130 in MS

Livability — Moss Point

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #10398

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moss Point, MS
• City population: 12,023
• Population (ZIP): 12,023

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 74% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Current HPI: 155.3138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $169,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-27 Listed $179,900 MLSU
• 2025-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $922 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.