1014 Mechanic St · Ogdensburg, NY 13669

$77,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,427 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1890 7,889 sqft lot $54/sqft · 17% below area Est $92k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1014 Mechanic Street located in the city of Ogdensburg. Close to the school other amenities offered in the Area. This home offers two upstairs bedrooms and a full bath and on the main floor there is a double living room, kitchen, dining room, another full bath and laundry. Off the laundry and bathroom, there is another room which could be used in many options such as bedroom, office with outside entrance, in-law sweet and more. The very large fenced in yard is perfect for children, pets or family gatherings. Come and check it out. Call your realtor and come and check it out.

Key facts

• Double living room
• Outside entrance
• Fenced in yard

Tags

• DOUBLE LIVING ROOM
• FENCED IN YARD
• OUTSIDE ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.3% in Ogdensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Ogdensburg City School District (town): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #531 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($532 loan paydown + $822 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $77k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.02%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,318
• List price: $77,000
• Delta: -16.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1011 New York Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,384 (-3%)	6mo	$116,000	$84	70
625 Mansion Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-4%)	3mo	$80,000	$59	70
1114 Pickering St	0.17mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,550 (+9%)	6mo	$17,000	$11	64
906 Franklin St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,328 (-7%)	4mo	$47,000	$35	63
924 Caroline St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+11%)	6mo	$86,500	$55	63
931 Elizabeth St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,550 (+9%)	6mo	$88,000	$57	56
428 Pine St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,497 (+5%)	7mo	$159,900	$107	56
616 Elizabeth St	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,492 (+5%)	4mo	$78,000	$52	55
418 St. Lawrence Ave	0.59mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,450 (+2%)	9mo	$124,000	$86	54
2 Grove St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,226 (-14%)	4mo	$57,500	$47	53
624 Morris St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-9%)	6mo	$42,000	$32	49
403 Rensselaer Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+12%)	3mo	$130,000	$81	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $23,511
• Equity at exit: $26,556

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $63,498
• Equity at exit: $35,500

Cash invested: $21,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13669

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,925/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $755

Max offer price $77,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $363	+0% $342	+5% $320	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $248	-5% $295	+0% $342	+5% $389	+10% $435
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $361	base $342	+0.5pp $322	+1.0pp $301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,250
• Closing costs: $2,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $77,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,000 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,000 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $77,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $77,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $77,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,000 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-03-31
    historical
12. 2026-01-17
    listed $77,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Welcome to 1014 Mechanic Street located in the city of Ogdensburg. Close to the school other amenities offered in the Area. This home offers two upstairs bedrooms and a full bath and on the main floor there is a double living room, kitchen, dining room, another full bath and laundry. Off the laundry and bathroom, there is another room which could be used in many options such as bedroom, office with outside entrance, in-law sweet and more. The very large fenced in yard is perfect for children, pets or family gatherings. Come and check it out. Call your realtor and come and check it out.

13. 2025-11-07
    price $77,000
14. 2025-09-21
    price $84,000
15. 2025-09-20
    listed $840 Active
16. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus $25,000
17. 2016-08-22
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,313
• − Property taxes: −$1,925
• − Insurance: −$385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,240
• Taxable income: $3,105
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$745
• After-tax cash flow: $3,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogdensburg City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621660
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,253
• Composite: 33.33/100
• National rank: #5497
• State rank: #531 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ogdensburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogdensburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,615

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Polish 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.07%
• Current HPI: 264.0261
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+208.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $77,000 SLCMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $77,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $84,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $840 CNYIS
• 2017-11-17 Sold (MLS) $25,000 SLCMLS
• 2016-08-22 Listed $25,000 SLCMLS

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,925 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.