3072 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit O- 119 · South Bradenton, FL 34205

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Condo · 378 Days on market

Built 1983 $360/mo HOA · 22% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful ground floor condo in popular Bayshore on the Lake community. This home has a great open floorplan with a large living room and dining room, and a spacious master suite and guest bedroom. The large sun room is light and bright, and offers pond views with ducks that love to visit your back yard. Updates include newly installed flooring and newer appliances and AC. Please see the list of features attached to the listing. Bayshore on the lake is a fabulous community in the heart of Bradenton. Amenities include a recreation center that can be reserved for private use by residents, a glistening pool, a large lake and fishing pier, and shuffleboard courts. This home is in Building O, wh

Key facts

• Ground floor condo
• Open floorplan
• Large sun room

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR CONDO
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS MASTER SUITE
• LARGE SUN ROOM
• POND VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $360; Total annual fees: $4,320; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee: $360; Association management by Resource Property Management; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, storage, elevator(s), maintenance; Association fee includes: cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, fidelity bond, insurance, internet, structure and grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, trash; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Community features: community mailbox, deed restrictions, association-owned recreation

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Single-story (one level); Faces south
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building identified as O
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Private mailbox; Storage; Pond frontage with water view; Fishing pier access; Public paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan with living room/dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Elevator access in the building
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-700/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (6.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 378 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 378 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.79%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-30,844
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-48,828
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$360
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,680

Max offer price $131,463

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,725	$1.97	23d	5	0.22mi
3737 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	21d	1	0.28mi
3635 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit J410 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,700	$1.49	23d	1	0.28mi
4129 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit C501 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	3d	1	0.28mi
4121 Heron Way #108 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,340	$1.17	23d	1	0.28mi
3963 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit F-414 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	14d	1	0.28mi
4109 Lake Bayshore Dr Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	768	$1,250	$1.63	23d	1	0.29mi
4204 Heron Way Unit B304 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	3d	1	0.34mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	23d	1	0.35mi
1308 36th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,199	$1.68	23d	1	0.40mi
3064 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 115 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,250	$1.09	23d	1	0.46mi
3124 Lake Bayshore Dr Unit 219 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	23d	1	0.46mi
2901 26th St W #807 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,525	$1.62	2d	1	0.49mi
2001 25th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1370	$3,000	$2.19	19d	1	0.52mi
919 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,599	$1.68	11d	1	0.55mi
907 34th Ave W Unit B Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,795	$1.79	23d	1	0.58mi
907 34th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	985	$1,599	$1.62	19d	1	0.58mi
2201 24th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,950	$1.75	23d	1	0.59mi
4444 17th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,200	$2.59	23d	1	0.64mi
2205 20th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,850	$2.28	11d	1	0.66mi
4515 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,510	$1.87	1d	14	0.70mi
2409 13th St W Apt 2 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,175	$1.53	23d	1	0.71mi
2422 11th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,445	$1.61	23d	1	0.73mi
2305 46th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,837	$1.83	2d	10	0.77mi
2127 13th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,149	$1.64	23d	1	0.80mi
3512 32nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	3d	1	0.81mi
505 30th Ave W Unit E406 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,450	$1.45	23d	1	0.83mi
4607 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1133	$2,500	$2.21	23d	1	0.84mi
515 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,375	$1.37	16d	2	0.85mi
2244 9th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,323	$1.72	23d	4	0.86mi
2117 11th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	23d	1	0.87mi
390 301 Blvd W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,495	$1.33	23d	1	0.88mi
2017 12th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	23d	1	0.89mi
603 27th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1365	$1,250	$0.92	23d	1	0.89mi
1912 19th Ave W Unit 1912 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	23d	1	0.89mi
425 30th Ave W Unit C308 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,590	$1.72	23d	1	0.91mi
1505 18th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	886	$1,875	$2.12	16d	1	0.94mi
805 22nd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	790	$1,200	$1.52	23d	1	0.94mi
3603 Oxford Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	23d	1	0.95mi
305 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	987	$1,400	$1.42	23d	2	0.96mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $360 · $4,320/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 378 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 373 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 372 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 370 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 369 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 368 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 367 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 363 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 362 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 361 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 360 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    price $139,900
16. 2026-04-04
    price $144,900
17. 2025-09-09
    price $149,900
18. 2025-06-22
    price $169,900
19. 2025-06-05
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − HOA: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$681
• After-tax cash flow: $-18/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Bradenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3092

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid