2533 Wall St · Houston, TX 77088

$209,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,369 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1948 9,099 sqft lot $153/sqft · 9% above area Est $192k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 9,099 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1948

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1948; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1948
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14x15); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each 10x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Academy (math 18% / reading 16%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 677 students, 94% FRL); Drew Academy (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 382 students, 91% FRL); Carver H S For Applied Tech/Engineering/Arts (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 755 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,633 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.07%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,046
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: 8.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7413 Easter St	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,446 (+6%)	6mo	$289,900	$200	73
2426 Walcott Ln	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,286 (-6%)	4mo	$69,900	$54	73
7423 Emma Lou St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+5%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	68
7918 Beckley St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+2%)	3mo	$193,900	$139	56
7430 N Star St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+10%)	8mo	$235,000	$156	56
2702 Areba St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,268 (-7%)	0mo	$199,900	$158	53
7710 Inwood Grove Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,425 (+4%)	1mo	$279,990	$196	52
8210 Venus St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,503 (+10%)	4mo	$259,000	$172	52
2604 Areba St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+12%)	2mo	$323,000	$211	50
7714 Inwood Grove Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,425 (+4%)	8mo	$281,990	$198	46
7514 Emma Lou St	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,558 (+14%)	7mo	$249,990	$160	42
3418 Abinger Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+13%)	8mo	$159,000	$102	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-30,123
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-36,371
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77088

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,834/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,797

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $209	+0% $150	+5% $91	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $-7	-5% $71	+0% $150	+5% $228	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $255	-0.5pp $203	base $150	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7903 Moon Beam St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1217	$1,700	$1.40	18d	1	0.29mi
7504 Carver Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,500	$1.48	6d	1	0.30mi
7504 Carver Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,500	$1.48	0d	1	0.30mi
8101 Venus St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,595	$1.16	25d	1	0.35mi
8101 Venus St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,699	$1.24	25d	1	0.35mi
7200 T C Jester Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,550	$1.58	0d	9	0.43mi
7200 T C Jester Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,550	$1.60	23d	9	0.43mi
7200 T C Jester Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,550	$1.41	4d	8	0.43mi
7008 Emma Lou St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1610	$3,000	$1.86	20d	1	0.57mi
6615 Goldspier St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,150	$1.16	23d	1	0.63mi
2407 Ferguson Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1195	$1,650	$1.38	45d	1	0.65mi
7628 Inwood Hills Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,500	$1.41	45d	1	0.68mi
7514 Sandle St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1523	$1,999	$1.31	45d	1	0.92mi
8822 Woodcamp Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1687	$1,740	$1.03	6d	1	1.02mi
6555 Sealey St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,700	$1.50	25d	1	1.05mi
2320 Wavell St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,683	$1.46	45d	1	1.06mi
2320 Wavell St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,900	$1.65	45d	1	1.06mi
2850 W Gulf Bank Rd Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$1,413	$1.34	0d	109	1.08mi
2722 Stallings Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,599	$1.23	0d	1	1.14mi
3018 Stallings Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$1,550	$1.03	45d	1	1.18mi
1450 Dewalt St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1371	$2,500	$1.82	45d	1	1.29mi
5300 W Gulf Bank Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$1,250	$1.64	45d	1	1.30mi
5300 W Gulf Bank Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	762	$1,250	$1.64	23d	1	1.30mi
5306 W Gulf Bank Rd Unit 1204 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	945	$965	$1.02	25d	1	1.33mi
1032 Glen Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	45d	1	1.38mi
5555 Holly View Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,315	$1.71	0d	15	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $209,000 Active
17. 2025-08-18
    status Pending
18. 2025-08-18
    historical
19. 2025-07-29
    listed $130,000 Active
20. 2017-12-07
    soldstatus
21. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,834 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$991/yr (+$83/mo · 35.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,834
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$1,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$395
• After-tax cash flow: $2,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,047
• Household income: $54,411
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2294.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.37%
• Current HPI: 325.0499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,834 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.