Larkspur Plan · Lakewood Park, FL 34946

$274,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · Townhouse · 622 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address listed as 3531 Harborside Ave, Fort Pierce FL 34946; Status: Active; Listing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price $274,990

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with space for 1 vehicle; Total parking for 1 vehicle
• Home design: Larkspur plan (new construction plan); Single-story (plan type)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1308

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of the home

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,912.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($7/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 622 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $241,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 622 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,912
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3772 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,308 (0%)	9mo	$287,000	$219	77
3802 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,308 (0%)	12mo	$279,990	$214	75
3838 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (0%)	9mo	$282,630	$216	74
3736 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,308 (0%)	14mo	$280,000	$214	71
3775 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,308 (0%)	16mo	$280,000	$214	70
3835 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+10%)	10mo	$310,000	$216	57
3856 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+10%)	13mo	$289,000	$201	56
3724 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+10%)	14mo	$300,000	$209	49
3754 Spanish Cedar Pl	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+10%)	16mo	$299,990	$209	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $79,575
• Equity at exit: $174,563

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $234,455
• Equity at exit: $315,358

Cash invested: $78,375 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34946

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,449 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,199/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $279,912

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,978
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3766 Harborside Ave Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$2,160	$1.65	13d	1	0.30mi
5642 Sunberry Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,950	$1.42	23d	1	0.99mi
2066 5th Ct SE Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1415	$3,850	$2.72	20d	1	1.09mi
2320 Water Oaks Ln Unit 111 Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1811	$3,500	$1.93	20d	1	1.20mi
335 Hawthorne Ln Vero Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1587	$1,800	$1.13	20d	1	1.27mi
254 Hawthorne Ln Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,900	$1.70	20d	1	1.32mi
2450 8th Ave SW Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$2,100	$1.51	20d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 622 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 621 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 620 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 619 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,990 Active 617 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 616 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,990 Active 614 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,990 Active 613 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 612 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,990 Active 611 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $274,990 Active 608 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 607 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 606 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 605 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 604 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $274,990 Active 603 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,199
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,351
• − Management: −$2,351
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,135
• After-tax cash flow: $1,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,588

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 34% White 26% Two or more races 18% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.92%
• Current HPI: 351.3324
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B