110 Concho Trl · La Grange, TX 78945

$148,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1980 1.07 ac lot $139/sqft · 42% below area Est $256k · 42% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Chapparal Ranchettes! This cozy home offers stunning sunset views and wildlife sightings in your own backyard. With an aerobic sewer system and AC window units, this property is ready for your personal touch. Conveniently located just 7 miles from La Grange and 15 miles from Round Top, with easy access to downtown Houston and Austin. This Single-Family home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms within its 1064 square feet, all situated on a spacious lot of 46609.2 square feet. Don't miss out on this opportunity to make this house your home! Home is being sold As Is.

Key facts

• Centrally located
• Aerobic sewer system
• 1.07 acre lot

Tags

• AEROBIC SEWER SYSTEM
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Chapparal Rachettes POA; Annual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Utilities: Aerobic septic
• Home design: Residential property; Has view
• Construction: Built in 1980; Cement siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Views; Pond on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 13x11; Bedroom (First floor) — 9x11; Bedroom (First floor) — 8x8 (may be used as additional bedroom)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (First floor) — 8x6; Bathroom (First floor) — 8x5
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window unit(s) for cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen/Family room combo; Kitchen/Dining combo; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 1.6% in La Grange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#920 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• La Grange ISD (town): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #300 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: La Grange El (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 998 students, 62% FRL); La Grange Middle (math 59% / reading 55%, grade B, #212 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 300 students, 52% FRL); La Grange H S (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 585 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $148k implies a 1750% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,631 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,695
• List price: $148,000
• Delta: -42.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,740
• Equity at exit: $22,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,193
• Equity at exit: $12,796

Cash invested: $41,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78945

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $148,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,000
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: sewer

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $148,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 582-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $148,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $148,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 555-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-04-27
    historical
19. 2026-04-27
    listed $155,000 Active 321-char remark
20. 2026-04-25
    listed $155,000 Active
21. 2026-04-23
    historical
22. 2023-12-08
    soldstatus
23. 2015-11-12
    soldstatus
24. 2007-01-12
    soldstatus
25. 2005-06-27
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,708 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,345/yr (+$195/mo · 645.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable loss: −$349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$84
• After-tax cash flow: $2,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Grange ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826100
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,243
• Composite: 37.11/100
• National rank: #4494
• State rank: #300 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Grange

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #920
• US rank: #16400

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,459

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,343 people
• By 2030: 26,940 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 27,898 · +5.9%
• By 2050: 28,623 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 31,155 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 31,557 · +19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hungarian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.88%
• Current HPI: 218.7015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1750.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $148,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $363 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.