Starling Plan · Wilmington, OH 45177

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,602 sqft · SingleFamily · 334 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Starling offers approximately 1,602 sq. ft. of thoughtfully planned living space in a desirable single-story new construction home. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a split-bedroom layout, this floor plan is ideal for buyers searching for new ranch homes in Wilmington or Trenton, OH. The open kitchen includes an island, pantry closet, and adjoining dining area, flowing into a spacious 20x17 great room with an optional fireplaceperfect for everyday living and entertaining. The grand bedroom suite features a private bathroom with a walk-in shower, vanity sink, and a large walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a first-floor laundry room, mudroom with optional built-in cubbie storage, and a 2-car garage. Buyers can choose between a slab foundation for easy maintenance or a basement foundation for added flexibility. The Starling is an excellent choice for buyers seeking new one-story homes near Dayton, OH with modern design and convenience.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 333 days

🏗️ New construction. The $305,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $324,489.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $305k).
• Recommended offer: $268k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 5.5% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in OH, #3,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Wilmington City (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roy E Holmes Elementary School (508 students, 58% FRL); Rodger O. Borror Middle School (math 35% / reading 44%, grade F, #519 of 654 statewide, top 80%, 502 students, 48% FRL); Wilmington High School (math 24% / reading 62%, grade F, #494 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 663 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 119 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,118/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $268,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.35%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,489
• List price: $305,000
• Delta: -6.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1181 Blue Spruce Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-6%)	3mo	$304,000	$203	83
1206 Timber Glen Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-8%)	3mo	$292,500	$199	81
1268 Timber Glen Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-7%)	9mo	$299,900	$201	80
932 Willow Bend Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+4%)	14mo	$285,000	$172	73
1244 Timber Glen Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-12%)	20mo	$269,900	$191	62
1321 Ridge Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-8%)	0mo	$285,000	$194	60
1300 Blue Spruce Ln	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,797 (+12%)	16mo	$426,244	$237	54
432 Red Maple Ln	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,802 (+12%)	14mo	$449,940	$250	51
434 Randolph St	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,472 (-8%)	16mo	$227,500	$155	39
1147 Southridge Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-10%)	23mo	$189,900	$132	33
641 Norman St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+12%)	23mo	$204,500	$114	27
719 Bernice St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	23mo	$120,000	$83	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $11,850
• Equity at exit: $48,382

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $93,456
• Equity at exit: $28,056

Cash invested: $90,857 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $319,000 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 43% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 45177

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,702
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,867/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $1,011

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,839

Max offer price $324,489

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,235	-5% $1,123	+0% $1,011	+5% $899	+10% $786
Rent	-10% $685	-5% $848	+0% $1,011	+5% $1,173	+10% $1,336
Rate	-1.0pp $1,174	-0.5pp $1,093	base $1,011	+0.5pp $927	+1.0pp $841

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,122
• Closing costs: $9,735
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	15d	1	0.71mi
121 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	15d	1	0.72mi
229 Taylor Dr Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	31d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $305,000 Active 334 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $305,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $305,000 Active 332 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $305,000 Active 331 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $305,000 Active 330 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $305,000 Active 329 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $305,000 Active 326 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $299,000 Active 325 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $299,000 Active 324 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 323 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $299,000 Active 321 DOM
12. 2026-07-25
    days on market $299,000 Active 320 DOM
13. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,000 Active 319 DOM
14. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 318 DOM
15. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 317 DOM
16. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 316 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 313 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 311 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 310 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 309 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,000 Active 308 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $299,000 Active 307 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $299,000 Active 306 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $299,000 Active 305 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 304 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 302 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $299,000 Active 301 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 300 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 298 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 297 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 296 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 295 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $299,000 Active 294 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 293 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 292 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $299,000 Active 291 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $299,000 Active 289 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 287 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 286 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 283 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $299,000 Active 282 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 281 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 280 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 278 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $299,000 Active 275 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 274 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 273 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 272 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 269 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 268 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,176
• − Property taxes: −$4,867
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,953
• − Management: −$3,953
• − Depreciation: −$9,440
• Taxable income: $7,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,777
• After-tax cash flow: $10,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a well-maintained exterior, interior, and landscaping, making it an attractive investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Roy E Holmes Elementary School Middle Rodger O. Borror Middle School F OH #519/654 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Wilmington High School F OH #494/781 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilmington City
• NCES district ID: 3904511
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,201
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4020
• State rank: #492 of 656 in OH

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #3127

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, OH
• County: Clinton · 41,352 people
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $70,483
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,352 people
• By 2030: 40,831 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 39,049 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 36,408 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 29,652 · -28.3%
• By 2100: 20,736 · -49.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.6) · D 22.3% · R 76.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.3pp · 2024: -54.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.6 2020: R+52.6 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+35.2 2008: R+30.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.35%
• Current HPI: 238.9182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $299,000 Zillow
• 2025-09-09 Listed $293,100 Zillow