1528 Warren Ave · Loyalsock, PA 17701

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1952 6,534 sqft lot Est $211k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a loved, one owner home in Loyalsock on the corner of Warren and Ritchey. There is a family room, living room, 3 bedrooms, one full bathroom, a utility room and a galley style kitchen with counter seating. Out back there is a covered patio nestled within the beautiful mature landscaping affording some privacy and shade. Coffee spot in the morning? Wine spot in the evening? You decide. The home definitely needs some updating but will be worth the effort!

Key facts

• Counter seating
• Covered patio
• Galley style kitchen

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• COUNTER SEATING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; R1 zoning
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Foundation: see remarks; Built area above grade: 1,233
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Level lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Bar; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Loyalsock Township SD (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #152 of 539 in PA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 73 units permitted in Lycoming County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,122/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 2178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lycoming County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.80%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,843
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1629 Marlin Pkwy	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,215 (-2%)	8mo	$189,900	$156	87
1625 Marlin Pkwy	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,350 (+10%)	7mo	$170,000	$126	74
1617 Marlin Pkwy	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,148 (-7%)	10mo	$210,000	$183	73
1621 Warren Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,165 (-6%)	19mo	$199,999	$172	71
1316 Mansel Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,143 (-7%)	12mo	$219,500	$192	64
1320 Mansel Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,344 (+9%)	22mo	$230,000	$171	53
417 Pearson Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,360 (+10%)	3mo	$215,000	$158	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,187
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $43,835
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17701

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,596/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,601

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $524	-5% $467	+0% $411	+5% $354	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $243	-5% $327	+0% $411	+5% $495	+10% $578
Rate	-1.0pp $512	-0.5pp $462	base $411	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1539 Northway Rd Unit NW455 Williamsport, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	45d	1	0.57mi
300 Valley Heights Dr Williamsport, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$3,476	$2.91	15d	1	0.63mi
215 E 3rd St Unit 3D Williamsport, PA	2.0	1.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	45d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 467-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,596 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$782/yr (+$65/mo · 49.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,596
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,767
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $4,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loyalsock Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4214310
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $46,423
• Composite: 44.48/100
• National rank: #2800
• State rank: #152 of 539 in PA

Livability — Loyalsock

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Faxon, PA
• County: Lycoming County · 43,104 people
• Metro: Williamsport, PA
• Population (ZIP): 43,104
• Household income: $53,237
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2178.0

Population outlook (Lycoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,164 people
• By 2030: 112,221 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 107,613 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 102,950 · -9.8%
• By 2075: 92,987 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 80,924 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lycoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.5) · D 28.8% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.3pp toward R · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.5 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.61%
• Current HPI: 216.7203
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Williamsport, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $200,000 WBVAR

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,596 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.