Concord Plan · Ruskin, FL 34219

$370,800

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 953 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 953 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13627 Sunset Sapphire Ct, Parrish FL 34219; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-25
• Financial info: List price: $370,500

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan home; Entry plan: Concord
• Exterior features: Living area of 2580 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: Concord; New construction plan

🏗️ New construction. The $370,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $412,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $371k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $371k).
• Recommended offer: $326k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,304 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.44%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $412,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13134 Empress Jewel Trl	0.40mi	6/3.0	2,580 (0%)	11mo	$404,900	$157	72
13123 Empress Jewel Trl	0.44mi	6/3.0	2,580 (0%)	10mo	$353,200	$137	71
13209 Sunset Sapphire Cir	0.36mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-7%)	4mo	$346,000	$145	61
13427 Camelot Ct	0.61mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,516 (-2%)	0mo	$377,999	$150	60
13130 Empress Jewel Trl	0.41mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-7%)	9mo	$373,700	$156	54
13131 Empress Jewel Trl	0.42mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-7%)	11mo	$389,900	$163	52
13239 Commons Ave	0.60mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,287 (-11%)	1mo	$385,999	$169	47
13215 Commons Ave	0.54mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,287 (-11%)	4mo	$379,999	$166	47
13135 Empress Jewel Trl	0.42mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,215 (-14%)	10mo	$372,800	$168	42
13114 Empress Jewel Trl	0.44mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,215 (-14%)	10mo	$368,800	$167	41
12621 Aura Moonlight Ter	0.49mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,896 (+12%)	11mo	$383,150	$132	41
13118 Empress Jewel Trl	0.44mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,215 (-14%)	10mo	$355,000	$160	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-63,342
• Equity at exit: $61,550

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-79,937
• Equity at exit: $35,691

Cash invested: $115,584 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,908 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,165
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$516 /mo · $6,192/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$821
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,611

Max offer price $412,800

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $520	-5% $377	+0% $235	+5% $92	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-74	-5% $80	+0% $235	+5% $389	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $340	base $235	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,200
• Closing costs: $12,384
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12227 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3326	$3,500	$1.05	3d	1	0.40mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	12d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,800 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $370,800 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $370,800 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $370,800 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,800 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,800 Active 947 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $370,800 Active 945 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $370,800 Active 944 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $370,800 Active 943 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $370,800 Active 942 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $370,700 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $370,700 Active 937 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $370,600 Active 936 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $370,600 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,123
• − Property taxes: −$6,192
• − Insurance: −$2,064
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,752
• − Management: −$3,752
• − Depreciation: −$12,009
• Taxable loss: −$3,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$959
• After-tax cash flow: $3,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B