103 E Vermont St · Bay City, MI 48706

$94,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 723 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1890 1,306 sqft lot Est $79k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

West side 2 bed 1 bath with 927 sq ft. Charming low maintenance perfect starter home or turn-key rental. Recent updates and move-in ready. Great location and even better neighborhood. #MAKEITHAPPEN (Seller is a licensed agent)

Key facts

• 1,306 sq ft lot
• Built 1890
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Lot size approx. 0.03 acres (2,250 sq ft); Zoning: Residential

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Electric water heater; Natural gas fuel available
• Home design: Residential 1 1/2-story structure; Built in 1890
• Construction: Basement foundation; Block basement; Vinyl siding exterior; Year built: 1890
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Fenced yard; Patio; Porch; Street lights along the street; Road frontage (approx. 22'); No water features; not in a floodplain

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 13 x 11); Dishwasher, microwave, range/oven, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second floor (13 x 10; 12 x 10) with carpet flooring
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and living room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor (approx. 6 x 7)
• Heating & cooling: Heating: baseboard, electric heat, and forced air; Cooling: ceiling fan(s) and window unit(s); Water heater: electric; Fuel: natural gas
• Interior features: Finished living space includes 4 total rooms; Full, unfinished basement with block foundation and egress/daylight windows
• Laundry & utility: Basement provides space for laundry/utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.6% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $650 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $91,180 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,807
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 N Dewitt St	0.30mi	2/1.0 (+1)	698 (-4%)	12mo	$94,000	$135	66
609 N Catherine St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (+1)	750 (+4%)	11mo	$65,000	$87	64
402 E Fisher St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (-0%)	12mo	$94,900	$132	57
538 Webb Dr	0.60mi	2/1.5 (+1)	764 (+6%)	3mo	$186,500	$244	53
509 W Jenny St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (+10%)	11mo	$86,000	$109	50
705 N Dewitt St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (+1)	805 (+11%)	11mo	$35,000	$43	50
707 W Jenny St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (+1)	792 (+10%)	8mo	$75,000	$95	48
700 S Wenona Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (+1)	733 (+1%)	21mo	$79,000	$108	48
1001 E North Union St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (+1)	803 (+11%)	0mo	$32,000	$40	47
107 King St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (+1)	680 (-6%)	19mo	$56,000	$82	46
511 S Barclay St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (+1)	648 (-10%)	12mo	$87,500	$135	38
510 S Kiesel St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	821 (+14%)	23mo	$93,300	$114	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-3,997
• Equity at exit: $14,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $11,006
• Equity at exit: $8,127

Cash invested: $26,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$493
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,241/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $804

Max offer price $94,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $203	+0% $176	+5% $150	+10% $123
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $136	+0% $176	+5% $217	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $200	base $176	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,500
• Closing costs: $2,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,187	$1.87	44d	1	0.88mi
311 Adams St Unit 2 Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	380	$695	$1.83	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $94,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,000 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    listed $109,000 Active
19. 2024-09-05
    soldstatus $64,900
20. 2008-08-20
    soldstatus $15,000
21. 2008-07-04
    listed $16,000
22. 2006-05-03
    soldstatus $61,500
23. 2004-07-23
    soldstatus $36,050

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,241 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 8.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,265
• − Property taxes: −$1,241
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$986
• − Management: −$986
• − Depreciation: −$2,735
• Taxable income: $647
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$155
• After-tax cash flow: $1,960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+202.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $109,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records
• 2008-08-20 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-07-04 Listed $16,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records
• 2004-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $36,050 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,241 · +24.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.