1015 Oakdale Rd · Johnson City, NY 13790

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,197 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1955 Fair condition $141/sqft · 5% below area Est $178k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick Ranch, One level Living at its best. Drainage, Paint. Furnace and Water (2012) semi private setting. Hardwood floors under carpet. Attached enclosed porch off the garage. Call today to see this 2 bedroom 1 bath, full basement and one car garage Ranch. Personal touches make it yours. Roof 9/2002 Estate - make an offer.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1955
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch/patio; Sloped lot; Wooded setting; Landscaped grounds; Views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storm windows; Wood-burning masonry fireplace in the living room; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($845/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#238 in NY, #3,739 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Johnson City Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson City Elementary/Primary School (496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $169k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $156,751 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,317
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -5.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1303 Oakdale Rd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,312 (+10%)	4mo	$157,000	$120	50
720 Oakdale Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,023 (-14%)	9mo	$75,000	$73	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $104,834
• Equity at exit: $152,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.88×
• Total profit: $325,762
• Equity at exit: $328,330

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13790

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $129	+0% $70	+5% $12	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $8	+0% $70	+5% $132	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $113	base $70	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1035 Anna Maria Dr Johnson City, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$2,130	$2.94	13d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $169,000 Active 553-char remark
19. 2015-06-24
    soldstatus $78,191 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Brick Ranch, One level Living at its best. Drainage, Paint. Furnace and Water (2012) semi private setting. Hardwood floors under carpet. Attached enclosed porch off the garage. Call today to see this 2 bedroom 1 bath, full basement and one car garage Ranch. Personal touches make it yours. Roof 9/2002 Estate - make an offer.

20. 2015-03-27
    listed $87,000 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Brick Ranch, One level Living at its best. Drainage, Paint. Furnace and Water (2012) semi private setting. Hardwood floors under carpet. Attached enclosed porch off the garage. Call today to see this 2 bedroom 1 bath, full basement and one car garage Ranch. Personal touches make it yours. Roof 9/2002 Estate - make an offer.

21. 2014-06-26
    listed $87,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,962
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$471
• After-tax cash flow: $1,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires significant repairs and improvements to its exterior and landscaping, as well as updates to the kitchen and interior walls to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Overgrown lawn — Safety hazard and poor curb appeal
• Major Debris near garage — Safety hazard and poor curb appeal
• Major Potential water damage — Structural damage and safety hazard

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property's visual appeal and marketability
• Both Kitchen renovation — Modernizes the kitchen and increases the home's value
• Both Painting interior walls — Refreshes the home's appearance and enhances its marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Overgrown lawn · Safety hazard and poor curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Debris near garage · Safety hazard and poor curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Potential water damage · Structural damage and safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property's visual appeal and marketability ↑
• Both Kitchen renovation — Modernizes the kitchen and increases the home's value ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Refreshes the home's appearance and enhances its marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson City Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615900
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,514
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5545
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #3739

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Broome County · 126,805 people
• City population: 18,739
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,739
• Household income: $59,045
• Rent vs Own: 44.8% rent · 55.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1233.0

Population outlook (Broome County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 187,989 people
• By 2030: 183,066 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 172,228 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 163,161 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 153,641 · -18.3%
• By 2100: 140,851 · -25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Broome

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.0pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+3.5 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+8.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.06%
• Current HPI: 285.3668
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.47%
• Metro: Binghamton, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+94.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $169,000 GBAOR
• 2015-06-24 Sold (MLS) $78,191 GBAOR
• 2015-03-27 Listed $87,000 GBAOR
• 2014-06-26 Listed $87,000 GBAOR