205 Arrowhead Cv · Niederwald, TX 78640

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Other · 286 Days on market

Built 2017 0.76 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located at 205 Arrowhead Cv in Kyle, TX, this 2017 single-wide manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms in a peaceful cul-de-sac setting. The kitchen features a functional peninsula with seating, shaker-style cabinets, and a backsplash, creating a central space for preparing meals and gathering. The primary bedroom includes a walk in closet, and the primary bathroom is equipped with a double sink vanity a garden tub and a walk-in shower. The open floor plan provides a smooth flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas, with direct access to a deck and patio overlooking the spacious 0.76-acre lot.

Key facts

• Functional peninsula
• Cul-de-sac setting
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC SETTING
• FUNCTIONAL PENINSULA
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETS
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY
• GARDEN TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($423/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.5% in Niederwald — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,198 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.24%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-34,646
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-47,718
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,865/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-02
   price $195,000 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Located at 205 Arrowhead Cv in Kyle, TX, this 2017 single-wide manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms in a peaceful cul-de-sac setting. The kitchen features a functional peninsula with seating, shaker-style cabinets, and a backsplash, creating a central space for preparing meals and gathering. The primary bedroom includes a walk in closet, and the primary bathroom is equipped with a double sink vanity a garden tub and a walk-in shower. The open floor plan provides a smooth flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas, with direct access to a deck and patio overlooking the spacious 0.76-acre lot.

2. 2025-08-13
   listed $210,000 Active 622-char remark

   Show marketing remark (622 chars)

   Located at 205 Arrowhead Cv in Kyle, TX, this 2017 single-wide manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms in a peaceful cul-de-sac setting. The kitchen features a functional peninsula with seating, shaker-style cabinets, and a backsplash, creating a central space for preparing meals and gathering. The primary bedroom includes a walk in closet, and the primary bathroom is equipped with a double sink vanity a garden tub and a walk-in shower. The open floor plan provides a smooth flow between living, dining, and kitchen areas, with direct access to a deck and patio overlooking the spacious 0.76-acre lot.

3. 2025-04-16
   listed Active
4. 2024-11-15
   listed Active
5. 2024-07-02
   listed Active
6. 2018-06-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,865 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,865
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$673
• After-tax cash flow: $1,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Niederwald

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1198
• US rank: #20995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $195,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $210,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-16 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-11-15 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2018-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,865 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.