154 Doe Trail Dr · Edmund, SC 29073

$140,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2001 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 154 Doe Trail Drive in the Deer Cross community! Step into the potential of this spacious 4-bedroom, 3-bath mobile home offering comfort, functionality, and room to make it your own. While the home has a dated interior, it features an excellent layout with generous living spaces throughout. The oversized primary suite provides a relaxing retreat complete with a large garden tub, separate standing shower, and plenty of space to unwind. Entertain with ease in both the main living room and an additional formal living area, giving flexibility for gatherings, a home office, or recreation space. The property includes a covered back porch all situated on approximately 0.50 acres and con

Key facts

• Large garden tub
• Covered back porch
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED BACK PORCH
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACES
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE STANDING SHOWER
• APPROXIMATELY 0.50 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Three parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Covered back porch; Chain link fencing; Vinyl exterior finish; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Wood-natural cabinets; Kitchen island; Formica countertops; Backsplash (other); Flooring: other; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level with double vanity, garden tub, private bath, separate shower, ceiling fan, private closet, carpeted floors; Three additional bedrooms on main level with carpeted floors, private closets, ceiling fans; bedrooms share baths
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms, living room, and formal dining area; Other flooring in kitchen
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans in living room and bedrooms; Electric fireplace; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry in heated utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forts Pond Elementary (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #447 of 597 statewide, top 76%, 468 students, 100% FRL); Pelion Middle (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #179 of 229 statewide, top 78%, 566 students, 100% FRL); Pelion High (math 14% / reading 77%, grade D-, #164 of 196 statewide, top 84%, 727 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 30% district-wide (58 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lexington 01 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $140k implies a 781% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.07%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $17,518
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $68,490
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29073

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $720	-5% $671	+0% $623	+5% $575	+10% $526
Rent	-10% $464	-5% $544	+0% $623	+5% $703	+10% $782
Rate	-1.0pp $694	-0.5pp $659	base $623	+0.5pp $587	+1.0pp $550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $140,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active - Contingent 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active - Contingent 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active - Contingent 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active - Contingent 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active - Contingent 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active - Contingent 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $140,000 Active - Contingent 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $140,000 Active - Contingent 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $140,000 Active - Contingent 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-26
    listed $140,000 Active
13. 2000-06-30
    soldstatus $15,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $5,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,339
• After-tax cash flow: $6,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — Edmund

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 53,156
• Household income: $77,229
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.20%
• Current HPI: 249.8957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+780.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $140,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2000-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $15,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-15.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $209 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.