21 Aylwin Rd · Portsmouth, VA 23702

$237,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,154 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1918 7,600 sqft lot Est $235k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

This newly renovated home has been refreshed from top to bottom and is ready for its new owners! Recent upgrades include brand-new LVP flooring throughout the downstairs, new carpet upstairs, a beautifully updated bathroom, and a fully renovated kitchen featuring new cabinets, countertops, tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Major system updates provide peace of mind with a new roof, updated electrical throughout with a new 200 Amp Service installed, new water heater, and a new zoned ductless HVAC system throughout the home for efficient year-round comfort. Situated on a spacious lot with a storage shed, this home is tucked away in the charming historic neighborhood of Cradock

Key facts

• New cabinets
• New lvp flooring
• New countertops

Tags

• NEW LVP FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking spaces
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Cape Cod style; 2 stories; Crawl foundation; Simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Crawl foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Back yard fenced; Chain link and wood fencing; Storage shed; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Additional bedroom; No bedroom with full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Two-zone cooling; Electric heating; Two-zone heating
• Interior features: Screened porch; Utility room; Wooded view
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#172 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Portsmouth City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #107 of 131 in VA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 300 units permitted in Portsmouth city in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $237k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,551 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Prospect Pkwy	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+5%)	2mo	$126,000	$104	73
59 Bainbridge Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,214 (+5%)	3mo	$120,000	$99	72
4320 Deep Creek Blvd	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (-0%)	1mo	$234,900	$204	65
9 Quackenbush Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+8%)	0mo	$260,000	$208	61
12 Oakcrest St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,115 (-3%)	3mo	$120,000	$108	59
132 Cushing St	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,016 (-12%)	3mo	$215,000	$212	56
206 Kelly Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-13%)	2mo	$125,000	$125	56
100 Dahlgren Ave Unit B	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,078 (-7%)	1mo	$194,700	$181	55
4109 Deep Creek Blvd	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-13%)	3mo	$220,000	$220	50
132 Afton Pkwy	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-8%)	3mo	$244,900	$232	47
117 Edison Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-13%)	2mo	$227,500	$228	45
14 Fairview Cir S	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+13%)	2mo	$192,000	$148	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $115,822
• Equity at exit: $213,508

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $355,875
• Equity at exit: $460,439

Cash invested: $66,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23702

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,807/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,889

Max offer price $196,059

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,250
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Cushing St Unit 104 Portsmouth, VA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,095	$1.56	20d	1	0.37mi
104 Cushing St Portsmouth, VA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	20d	1	0.37mi
18 Cooper Dr Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	920	$1,400	$1.52	17d	1	0.50mi
231 Edison Ave Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,275	$1.16	20d	1	0.62mi
231 Edison Ave Unit 231 Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,275	$1.21	10d	1	0.62mi
3724 Deep Creek Blvd Unit 3754 Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	12d	1	0.64mi
3724 Deep Creek Blvd Unit 3728 Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	24d	1	0.64mi
134 Monmouth St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,450	$1.70	44d	1	0.65mi
21 DeKalb Ave Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	984	$1,550	$1.58	44d	1	0.71mi
2750 Greenwood Dr Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	24d	1	0.87mi
213 Beacon Rd Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,300	$1.80	24d	1	0.89mi
1314 Summit Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	0.92mi
2810 Roanoke Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,100	$1.91	44d	1	0.94mi
251 Independence St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.5	1294	$2,550	$1.97	24d	1	0.96mi
2906 Chestnut St Unit 1328007P Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	947	$4,650	$4.91	7d	1	1.03mi
70 Manly St Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	1.03mi
2756 Peach St Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,495	$1.44	24d	1	1.04mi
2715 Portsmouth Blvd Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1428	$1,425	$1.00	15d	1	1.09mi
2715 Portsmouth Blvd Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1428	$1,425	$1.00	17d	1	1.09mi
2304 Nashville Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.5	1226	$1,395	$1.14	44d	1	1.13mi
3317 Downes St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,995	$1.74	10d	1	1.18mi
3317 Downes St Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,995	$1.74	3d	1	1.18mi
2111 Atlanta Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,395	$1.69	44d	1	1.24mi
818 Coolidge St Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1230	$2,100	$1.71	44d	1	1.25mi
1915 Lansing Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	1085	$1,675	$1.54	3d	1	1.29mi
1915 Des Moines Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,700	$1.59	16d	1	1.29mi
1915 Des Moines Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,700	$1.59	24d	1	1.29mi
102 Francis St #98 Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,395	$1.40	16d	1	1.29mi
98 Francis St Portsmouth, VA	2.0	2.0	984	$1,395	$1.42	15d	1	1.30mi
3304 Killian Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	800	$2,000	$2.50	24d	1	1.32mi
2007 Elm Ave Portsmouth, VA	3.0	1.0	903	$1,300	$1.44	20d	1	1.33mi
1 Shelby St Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	24d	1	1.38mi
1802 Atlanta Ave Unit 2 Portsmouth, VA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	24d	1	1.41mi
49 Carver Cir Portsmouth, VA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,450	$1.81	24d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $237,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,807 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$136/yr (+$11/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,807
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$6,895
• Taxable loss: −$7,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,699
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portsmouth City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103000
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -40.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,152
• Composite: 39.01/100
• National rank: #4071
• State rank: #107 of 131 in VA

Livability — Portsmouth

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #5381

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portsmouth, VA
• County: Portsmouth City · 96,366 people
• City population: 96,366
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,485
• Household income: $48,835
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 534.0

Population outlook (Portsmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 96,730 people
• By 2030: 96,760 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 96,573 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 95,606 · -1.2%
• By 2075: 93,579 · -3.3%
• By 2100: 83,756 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 35% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Portsmouth

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.6) · D 68.6% · R 30.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 39.3pp · 2024: 38.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.6 2020: D+40.8 2016: D+36.5 2012: D+39.6 2008: D+39.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.70%
• Current HPI: 340.0817
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+169.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $237,000 REINMLS
• 2007-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,807 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.