233 N First St · Carthage, IL 62321

$49,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily · 310 Days on market

Built 1900 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house features 4 upstairs bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, with one being upstairs. The house will need cosmetic adjustments, but beyond that lies the potential: much of the house has wood floors beneath the carpets and flooring; there is a beautiful set of pocket doors that separate the dining room from the living room; a fancy gas fireplace adorns the living room; and there is a classic stairway in the foyer. The house includes both front and back enclosed porches, and the attached L-shaped garage adds convenience to your living. Come check out this listing to see if it would fit your needs.

Key facts

• Enclosed porches
• Pocket doors
• Wood floors

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• POCKET DOORS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• CLASSIC STAIRWAY
• ENCLOSED PORCHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#306 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Illini West H S District 307 (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #611 of 919 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Illini West High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 342 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hancock County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.86%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,800
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 N Scofield	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (-12%)	1mo	$99,000	$72	68
420 N Marion St	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,630 (+4%)	4mo	$138,000	$85	63
825 Augusta Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (+1%)	6mo	$125,000	$80	61
508 N Fayette	0.67mi	4/1.5	1,576 (+1%)	7mo	$185,000	$117	59
200 Dallas Rd	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,522 (-2%)	12mo	$148,000	$97	45
328 N Fayette	0.63mi	3/4.0 (-1)	1,544 (-1%)	20mo	$90,000	$58	39
1025 Augusta Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	14mo	$134,000	$100	32
260 S Marion	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,460 (-6%)	22mo	$72,000	$49	27
505 N Fayette St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,783 (+14%)	13mo	$135,000	$76	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $28,422
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $71,715
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62321

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,378/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $496

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,000 Active 310 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 309 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 308 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 307 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 306 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $49,000 Active 303 DOM
8. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-14
   price $40,000
10. 2025-08-13
    listed $49,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    This house features 4 upstairs bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, with one being upstairs. The house will need cosmetic adjustments, but beyond that lies the potential: much of the house has wood floors beneath the carpets and flooring; there is a beautiful set of pocket doors that separate the dining room from the living room; a fancy gas fireplace adorns the living room; and there is a classic stairway in the foyer. The house includes both front and back enclosed porches, and the attached L-shaped garage adds convenience to your living. Come check out this listing to see if it would fit your needs.

11. 2025-08-13
    listed $49,000 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    This house features 4 upstairs bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, with one being upstairs. The house will need cosmetic adjustments, but beyond that lies the potential: much of the house has wood floors beneath the carpets and flooring; there is a beautiful set of pocket doors that separate the dining room from the living room; a fancy gas fireplace adorns the living room; and there is a classic stairway in the foyer. The house includes both front and back enclosed porches, and the attached L-shaped garage adds convenience to your living. Come check out this listing to see if it would fit your needs.

12. 2015-11-12
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,378 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,378 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,378
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $6,486
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,557
• After-tax cash flow: $5,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Illini West H S District 307
• NCES district ID: 1701384
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,745
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #12997
• State rank: #611 of 919 in IL

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #306
• US rank: #6009

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, IL
• Population (ZIP): 3,682

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,042 people
• By 2030: 16,056 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 13,912 · -18.4%
• By 2050: 11,879 · -30.3%
• By 2075: 8,302 · -51.3%
• By 2100: 5,846 · -65.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.0) · D 24.1% · R 74.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.8pp · 2024: -50.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.0 2020: R+48.9 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+10.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.17%
• Current HPI: 129.3847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+14.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $40,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Listed $49,000 Quincy AOR
• 2025-08-13 Listed $49,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,378 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.