408 Sunrise Ranch Dr · Conroe, TX 77316

$250,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · Land · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Set-up your home office or create a space for guests to feel at home. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. Located in Conroe off SH-105, Pine Lake Cove is just minutes from Lake Conroe. The community is zoned in the sought-after Montgomery ISD and is near parks and entertainment. Groundbreaking energy efficiency is also built seamlessly into every home in this community so you can spend less on utility bills and more on the things that matter most. * Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: IMC Property Management; Annual association fee; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached garage parking
• Security: Prewired security; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Single-story (all main bedrooms and living spaces on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Prewired security; Smoke detectors; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14 x 13); Bedroom on first floor (12 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in bath(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (heat pump, electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Stone counters; Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Low emissivity windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $250,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $255,090.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $251k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $227,234 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,090
• List price: $250,990
• Delta: -1.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,986
• Equity at exit: $38,035

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,968
• Equity at exit: $22,056

Cash invested: $71,425 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,272 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,338
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,284/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $255,090

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $216	+0% $144	+5% $72	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $54	+0% $144	+5% $234	+10% $324
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $209	base $144	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,773
• Closing costs: $7,653
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18544 Meadow Point Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	0.33mi
18490 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1976	$1,731	$0.88	14d	1	0.43mi
18436 Sunrise Pines Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$2,200	$1.13	45d	1	0.49mi
1751 Fennel Flower Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,246	$1.25	4d	59	0.68mi
607 Lake View Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,499	$1.25	45d	1	1.06mi
275 Pine Terrace Dr Unit 5106C Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$2,820	$1.59	45d	1	1.21mi
9913 Crescent Cove Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1805	$2,499	$1.38	1d	40	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 745-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   price $250,990 745-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   price $250,990 183-char remark
4. 2026-04-25
   status Active 183-char remark
5. 2026-04-25
   historical 183-char remark
6. 2026-04-24
   listed $257,990 Active 745-char remark
7. 2026-04-11
   status Active 183-char remark
8. 2026-04-11
   price $257,990 183-char remark
9. 2025-10-24
   historical 183-char remark
10. 2025-10-22
    listed $287,040 Active 183-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,593 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,309/yr (+$276/mo · 257.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,289
• − Property taxes: −$1,284
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,181
• − Management: −$2,181
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,421
• Taxable loss: −$2,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$615
• After-tax cash flow: $2,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $250,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $257,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,284 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.